Ole Miss baseball heads to Tuscaloosa with Regional hosting hopes still alive

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — With one SEC weekend remaining before the conference tournament commences in Hoover, the margin for error has definitely diminished, but a golden opportunity awaits for head coach Mike Bianco’s Rebels.

15^th-ranked Ole Miss will pay a visit to T-town for a three-day series, beginning Thursday, to close out the regular season against the 18^th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. The matchup carries implications concerning both the SEC and NCAA Tournaments for both squads, each of whom enter Thursday with a chance to add one final resume-polisher to their respective resumes by taking on a ranked, NCAA tournament-projected team.

Ole Miss enters the weekend at 35–18 overall and 14–13 in SEC play after taking two of three from then-No. 9 Texas A&M last weekend (arguably the biggest series win of the year) before easily and expectedly dispatching UT Martin in a midweek run-rule victory. Alabama comes in at 35–17 overall and 16–11 in conference play, fresh off a road sweep of South Carolina and on the right side of the hosting bubble.

There’s no question that both teams will be in the NCAA Tournament, but there’s a very real possibility that either remaining one of the top 16 seeds—where teams need to be to host—or working their way to that line will depend entirely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. In other words, this series has all the makings of a play-in series when it comes to hosting a regional.

As a currently-slotted host according to both D1Baseball and Baseball America’s latest projections, Rob Vaughn’s Crimson Tide team is looking to book Sewell-Thomas Stadium as an NCAA Tournament venue this weekend, before heading to Hoover. Winning a series against a top-15 RPI opponent might do just that. Ole Miss, meanwhile, remains just outside that line after falling off the host line following the gut-wrenching series loss in Fayetteville. The Rebels’ series victory over Texas A&M was certainly a step towards regaining momentum, but it wasn’t enough to earn their way back into the top 16 according to either outlet.

Those stakes make this series feel like the postseason is already here.

Offense: power-heavy Rebels meet balanced Alabama lineup

Ole Miss continues to rely heavily on one of the SEC’s more effective power-hitting lineups.

The Rebels enter the weekend with 91 home runs, a total that ranks among the conference’s best, and several of the SEC’s most productive middle-order bats continue to anchor the offense. Senior Judd Utermark made program history earlier this week by becoming Ole Miss baseball’s all-time career-home run leader, launching his 49th career homer against UT Martin.

Utermark has been spectacular entering the final weekend of the regular season, hitting .480 in May with three home runs and eight RBIs over that stretch. Catcher Austin Fawley has been comparably dangerous lately, batting .455 this month with five home runs and an OPS north of 1.600.

However, the Rebels’ offense isn’t concern-free; Bianco’s team still rolls into Tuscaloosa ranked near the bottom of the SEC in team batting average at .264, a number that reflects some of the inconsistency that has emerged against higher-end pitching throughout the spring. At times, the Rebels have been over-reliant on the home run ball, leading to stretches where innings can unravel quickly offensively if the long ball is taken away. That volatility remains one of the biggest question marks surrounding the lineup on the verge of the postseason.

But while some of the Rebels’ offensive stats may not strike fear in the hearts of its opponents, as referenced before, it remains capable of producing big numbers in a hurry. In addition to Utermark, Will Furniss continues to provide consistency near the top of the lineup as well, while Dom Decker’s recent rise has given Ole Miss another reliable table-setter offensively.

Alabama, meanwhile, presents a more balanced offensive identity.

The Crimson Tide are not quite as reliant on the long ball as Ole Miss, but they’ve consistently produced quality at-bats throughout SEC play and have been especially productive at manufacturing offense in certain areas. Also worth noting is that the Tide have delivered some of their best performances as of late, sweeping back-to-back opponents and skyrocketing in postseason projections as a result. Whether they like it or not, the Rebels appear to set to face arguably the best version of the Crimson Tide we’ve seen this year.

Pitching matchup could define the weekend

Like most SEC series in mid-May, the matchup on the mound may be the one that matters most.

Ole Miss still owns one of the conference’s steadier overall pitching staffs statistically, led in part by right-hander Cade Townsend, whose 2.42 ERA ranks among the SEC’s best. Townsend has quietly developed into one of the league’s most dependable starters, combining swing-and-miss stuff with elite command throughout conference play. In this week’s Thursday-Friday-Saturday series, Townsend will start the final game of the weekend, while Taylor Rabe will start Friday in game two.

Ace Hunter Elliott, the final player from the 2022 national championship-winning team still on the roster, remains one of the emotional leaders of the staff despite some inconsistency at times this spring. Earlier this week against Texas A&M, Elliott became the third pitcher in Ole Miss history to reach the 300-career strikeout mark. Elliott will be Thursday night’s starter in T-town.

Possibly the most encouraging development for Ole Miss lately, however, has been the emergence of the aforementioned Rabe. The right-hander delivered arguably the biggest outing of the season in last weekend’s rubber match against Texas A&M, striking out 14 Aggies without issuing a walk while stabilizing a game that got dicey around the mid-way point.

Out of the bullpen, Walker Hooks has developed into one of the SEC’s premier late-inning arms. During conference play, Hooks currently leads the SEC in ERA, WHIP, saves, and appearances—a remarkable combination of dominance and durability with the postseason upon us.

Alabama’s pitching staff, meanwhile, has been solid across the board rather than overwhelmingly dominant in one area. Myles Upchurch has been one of the Tide’s more dependable arms, while Alabama’s bullpen depth has helped Vaughn’s team close out several tight SEC games. The Tide may not have the overpowering top-end pitching profile of some SEC contenders (on paper at least), but they’ve consistently limited damage well enough to complement their offense.

Projected Pitching Matchups

Thursday: LHP Hunter Elliott (5-2, 5.12 ERA) vs. RHP Tyler Fay (8-3, 4.48 ERA)

Friday: RHP Taylor Rabe (3-3, 4.56 ERA) vs. LHP Zane Adams (6-3, 4.04 ERA)

Saturday: RHP Cade Townsend (5-2, 3.25 ERA) vs. RHP Myles Upchurch (7-3, 3.43 ERA)

Bigger picture: hosting, Hoover, and momentum

Beyond simply closing the regular season strong, both teams enter the weekend with no shortage of stakes. For Alabama, a series win might not just lock down their status of regional host but could elevate them into the national seeding conversation as well.

For Ole Miss, the stakes feel even more immediate.

Following the Arkansas series, many Rebel faithful found their dreams of bringing NCAA tournament play to Swayze somewhat dampened; however, those dreams were reignited following last weekend’s series victory over a very good Aggies team. A second-straight series victory over a projected host would almost certainly put them back on the hosting line right before their trip to Hoover.

And scoring another series victory in the toughest conference in the country will always and forever earn major style points for any team in the eyes of the selection committee, and we all know that.

Game Information:

Ole Miss travels to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama on Thursday, May 14 at 6:00 p.m., Friday, May 15 at 6:00 p.m. on SEC Network+, and Saturday, May 16 at 2:00 p.m. on SEC Network.