Saturday NCAA Baseball Tourney Watch: Baseball America Projects Ole Miss in Field of 64; D1Baseball Shows Rebs as ‘First Four Out’
‘The waiting is the hardest part
Every day you get one more yard
You take it on faith, you take it to the heart
The waiting is the hardest part.’ — Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers
While I don’t think Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers were singing about the NCAA Baseball Tournament, their words certainly encapsulate what Ole Miss fans out here in tourney bubble world are feeling as the waiting is indeed the hardest part.
As the field of 64 for the NCAA Baseball Tournament will be announced Monday, Ole Miss baseball (32-22, 14-16 SEC) continues to play the waiting game. On Saturday morning, D1Baseball.com and Baseball America issued their most recent projections as to who makes the tourney, and there’s good news and bad news, so to speak.
D1Baseball Projections: Ole Miss moved to ‘first four out’
Before Friday’s games, D1Baseball had the Rebels projected as the No. 3 seed in the Louisville Regional. However, as of Saturday morning, Ole Miss has dropped to the “first four out” status, meaning if the tournament were held today, D1Baseball does not see the Rebs making the cut.
They have Ole Miss ranked as the No. 66 team in the 64-team field.
🚨LATEST FIELD OF 64🚨
The latest @d1baseball Field of 64 projections are OUT!
1️⃣ New Top 8 seed
1️⃣ New Top 16 seed
2️⃣ New teams in the fieldREAD: https://t.co/BaFtQc4vHR pic.twitter.com/g3KZb0bBfE
— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogers) May 28, 2022
This is due to results from conference tournaments that are taking place, as there have been changes since Friday for teams who are projected to be automatic qualifiers.
For example, D1Baseball writes:
“Given the automatic qualifier changes….in the MVC (Missouri Valley Conference) and WCC (West Coast Conference), Dallas Baptist and Gonzaga move from automatic bids to at-large bids, which means two at-large teams need to fall out of our projected field. We bumped out Ole Miss (which was eliminated from the SEC tournament in the play-in round) and Old Dominion (which beat Charlotte on Friday to stay alive in the C-USA tournament).”
But all is not lost, as it’s important to note that Ole Miss’ RPI actually moved up one spot from Friday to Saturday, going from 38 to 37.
Baseball America Projections: Rebs No. 3 seed in Hattiesburg
The good news is Baseball America still shows the Rebels as the No. 3 seed in the Hattiesburg Regional. Joining Ole Miss there would be No. 1 seed Southern Miss, No. 2 seed UCLA, and No. 4 seed Air Force.
Baseball America writer Teddy Cahill notes there is a lot of uncertainty with the Field of 64 as of today as the conference tourneys are heating up.
Just published today's update to the @BaseballAmerica Projected Field of 64.
There is a shocking amount in flux going into the weekend – top-eight seeds, hosting, bubble spots, nothing feels particularly settled https://t.co/LI79SY6chO
— Teddy Cahill (@tedcahill) May 28, 2022
Cahill writes about the tournament bubble, explaining what is causing changes to the projections:
“For the first time this week, the NCAA Tournament bubble noticeably tightened Friday. Dallas Baptist was routed by Evansville and it looks unlikely to win the Missouri Valley Tournament. Similarly, Gonzaga lost to San Diego and Maryland lost to Michigan, making their paths to automatic bids more difficult. Grand Canyon also lost, forcing an if-necessary game in the WAC Tournament semifinals, but the Antelopes may not be a lock for regionals if they take another loss.
“In addition to seeing if any of those teams can come through the loser’s bracket, bubble watchers should have an eye on the SEC Tournament on Saturday. Alabama plays Florida and Kentucky takes on LSU with a spot in the semifinals on the line. Both the Crimson Tide and Wildcats are aiming for their 15th SEC wins and could force their way into the tournament field.”
What the Rebs need
Outside of league play, Ole Miss needs Dallas Baptist, Gonzaga, Southern Miss and Maryland to bounce back and win their conference tournaments. If they don’t, they will likely be at-large teams, bumping teams like Ole Miss out of the tournament.
In the SEC, Rebels should pull for Kentucky to lose to LSU and Alabama to lose to Florida. While the Rebels’ RPI is higher than Alabama’s (No. 42) and Kentucky’s (No. 54), it’s important to note that the Tide swept Ole Miss in Oxford this season, and the Wildcats have four more top-25 victories than Ole Miss, something the Baseball Committee could favor.
Selection Show Monday
The NCAA Baseball Tournament Selection Show will begin at 11:00 a.m. (CT) Monday, May 30. It will be televised on ESPN2.
Until then…..
‘The waiting is the hardest part
Every day you see one more card
You take it on faith, you take it to the heart
The waiting is the hardest part…..’
Stay tuned to The Rebel Walk for all the latest!
(Feature image credit: Chris Muller, The Rebel Walk)
Evelyn Van Pelt
Evelyn has covered sports for over two decades, beginning her journalism career as a sports writer for a newspaper in Austin, Texas. She attended Texas A&M and majored in English. Evelyn's love for Ole Miss began when her daughter Katie attended the university on a volleyball scholarship. Evelyn created the Rebel Walk in 2013 and has served as publisher and managing editor since its inception.
