Preview: Ole Miss Hosts North Alabama in Final Non-Conference Matchup

OXFORD, Miss. — On Tuesday afternoon, Ole Miss will take the court against North Alabama for the final non-conference matchup of the season. For head coach Kermit Davis’ team, this is the final tune-up before heading into Southeastern Conference play.

The Rebels currently have an 8-3 record and will start the conference slate on the 28th against Tennessee.

In its most recent matchup, Ole Miss defeated Temple, 63-55, after a strong showing in the second half. While the offense was slow to get going, the keys and identity of this team were on full display — rebounding and defense.

The 46 rebounds in the Temple game were the most all season, while the 29.8% shooting from Temple was the lowest since Ole Miss played Middle Tennessee State over two years ago (12/16/2020).

The Rebels’ opponent in this non-conference finale is North Alabama (6-5). Playing out of the Atlantic Sun conference, the Lions are in their fifth season competing at the Division 1 level. The 2022-2023 season is the first time North Alabama is eligible for the postseason. In the Coaches Poll, the Lions were projected to finish last in the Atlantic Sun.

Heading into the matchup, Ole Miss sits at 77th in the NET rankings. North Alabama is the second-lowest NET team on Ole Miss’ schedule to date, ranked 276th. Even with such a large difference, there are still keys to the game for the Rebels.

 Ole Miss Points of Emphasis

Ole Miss Defense

Granted, this Lions team has two 100-plus point performances against non-D1 opponents, but they are really impressive against man defense. North Alabama scores in the 93rd percentile against man and has a 53.1 EFG%.

The top three scorers — Daniel Ortiz, Damian Forrest, KJ Johnson — have been effective against man all year. Ortiz and Forrest have EFG% that are above 55%.

Conversely, against zone that effective field goal% drops, and the actual FG% drops nearly 10 points to 38.2%. Ole Miss will show zone and they should, to keep it fresh and to get some reps in it. Looking at North Alabama’s game breakdown, they had 50 offensive man possessions against Colorado (No. 48 NET), and 49 against Memphis (No. 42 NET). The only team to play more zone than man was Georgia Tech.

For Ole Miss, the trend has been struggle early, click for a moment and overcome in the second. Watching today, the goal is to see a healthy 35-40 minutes of good defense with a majority being man possessions.

In all three of North Alabama’s games against Power Five opponents, the Lions scored in the 60s. Memphis plays with more pace and UNA scored 68 points in that one.

This is an opportunity for the Rebels to show that the Ole Miss defense can focus, not give up any huge runs, and be engaged for a full 37-40 minutes.

Before switching over to Ole Miss’ offensive outlook, let’s highlight a couple of offensive things about North Alabama. Damian Forrest is their big interior presence, standing 6’9″ and weighing 235 pounds.  Forrest is second on the Lions’ team in scoring (10.5 PPG) and leads them in rebounds (6.5 RPG). About one-third of Forrest’s possessions have been from the post where he largely operates on the left side.

The leading scorer for the Lions is Daniel Ortiz, who largely plays on the perimeter. 76.4% of his jumpers come from deep. Other than that, he will look to get out in transition where he either runs the right side or has the ball in his hands.

Ole Miss offense

The Ole Miss offense is at its best when it gets players to play to their core’s strengths, and one thing you can look forward to is seeing how that will happen. Thanks to Synergy Sports Technologies, we can see how and where each player is the most effective.

Matthew Murrell is at his best when he comes off screens. Right now he gets 21% of his looks off of that. His 1.24 points per possession is in the 84th percentile. Amaree Abram has been very good doing two things: isolation at the top of the key and as a pick-n-roll ball handler.

Daeshun Ruffin in limited reps has been one of the best in the NCAA in pick-n-roll opportunities scoring with 1.143 points per possession. Jaemyn Brakefield and Myles Burns are at their best in transition.

A philosophy I believe in is: the best coaches find ways for individual players to get looks they’re comfortable with.

With Ruffin getting more and more minutes as he comes back from injury there are some questions to pose. Are we going to see Murrell get more shots off-movement? Will Ruffin receive more time operating as a handler? Will Abram get isolation opportunities up top where he can get to that mid-range shot?

North Alabama’s defense has struggled against all of those metrics. Their best is in the 34th percentile against pick-n-roll handlers. They guard in the 18th percentile against transition opportunities and 16th percentile against off-screen jumpers. The Lions are in the 2nd percentile and give up 1.145 points per possession against isolation.

Kermit Davis can really hammer home how effective this team can be by routinely setting his team up for success by playing to their strengths.

Tip off is at 2:00 p.m. in the Sandy and John Black Pavilion.

TJ Oxley

TJ Oxley is the Vice President of Operations and the Director of Community Relations for The Rebel Walk. He is also the Director of Basketball Content and Senior Basketball Writer. He has over five years of experience providing in-depth analysis of college basketball through multiple platforms. A former MBA graduate of Ole Miss, TJ started with The Rebel Walk in 2019.