Preview: Hosting Stakes on the Line as No. 17 Ole Miss Women’s Basketball Welcomes No. 7 LSU

OXFORD, Miss. — Just two days after downing Tennessee in the SJB Pavilion, Coach Yo’s Lady Rebels have no time to celebrate—or practice—before welcoming Kim Mulkey’s seventh-ranked LSU Lady Tigers to Oxford in what is yet another high-profile and high-opportunity matchup while on their way to their fifth straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

According to Charlie Creme’s most recent bracketology, LSU enters the week projected as a No. 2 seed, while Ole Miss sits just outside the hosting line as a projected No. 5 seed. For the Rebels, the path is clear: a win Thursday would almost certainly elevate them to a No. 4 seed, a critical threshold given that teams seeded fourth or better earn the right to host in the NCAA Tournament.

A Grind vs. a Break

The events (or lack thereof, for LSU) leading up to this matchup are certainly worth considering here. Tomorrow night will mark Ole Miss’s third game in six days, part of a grueling stretch credited to the late-January winter storm which forced a midseason schedule revision. The Rebels are the only team in the country navigating such a tightly-packed schedule, and the grind has left no time for physical practice between games, as Coach Yo has made clear that the team will need to get whatever rest they can in the one and only that separates games against ranked, NCAA Tournament-projected teams; preparation will include only walkthroughs and watching film.

LSU, meanwhile, will arrive in Oxford coming off a five-day break since they last took the court. Fatigue could be a factor for the Rebels, particularly against a Lady Tigers team that thrives on tempo, depth, and relentless offensive pressure.

LSU’s Offensive Firepower

Simply put, Mulkey’s squad will bring one of the deadliest offenses in the country to Oxford. The Tigers rank first nationally in scoring at 95.7 points per game and shoot a stellar 37.5 percent from beyond the arc—good for second in the SEC and eighth nationally. LSU is also converting at a 51 percent clip from the field, underscoring just how large of a task it will be for the Ole Miss defense who will need one of its best performances of the season to pull off the upset Thursday night.

LSU’s dominance extends to the glass as well, as the Tigers rank second nationally with 48.7 rebounds per game. Add in the fact that seven players on Mulkey’s roster average nine or more points per game, and it’s clear Ole Miss will need a poised, focused, and disciplined effort to preserve its perfect home record against a deep LSU team capable of winning in multiple ways—and with multiple players.

That depth will test a potentially weary Ole Miss squad tasked with stopping one of the most complete offensive units in the nation in a way that they haven’t yet been this season.

Home-Court Advantage Matters

One of the biggest reasons for optimism for a Rebel victory will certainly be the fact that the women’s basketball edition of the Magnolia Bowl will be played in the SJB Pavilion this year. The Rebels have been perfect at home this season, and they haven’t exactly had trouble sending opponents home disappointed—every home win except one has come by double digits, and the stats show just how much better Ole Miss has been at home compared to on the road.

Defensively, the Rebels have been elite in Oxford, allowing just 47.6 points per game at home while scoring 88.4 themselves. That defensive identity will need to be on full display against LSU’s potent offense.

Cotie McMahon at the Center

For Ole Miss, everything starts with star forward Cotie McMahon. Coming off a career day against Tennessee which saw her record a season-high of 39 points, McMahon once again figures to be the focal point for the Rebels’ offense; her 20.5 points per game leads the team, and she also ranks as the squad’s top assister, making her impact felt well beyond the box score. Against LSU’s depth and size, Ole Miss will need McMahon to set the tone offensively and serve as a steady presence throughout the game, as per usual.

A Call for the Pavilion

Head coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin emphasized the importance of fan support in yesterday’s presser following the victory against Tennessee, particularly during such a demanding and unorthodox stretch. With the Rebels in the midst of their third game in six days, home-court energy would certainly translate to momentum and motivation for an NCAA Tournament-bound team squaring off against a top-10 opponent.

Given Ole Miss’s stellar home numbers throughout the season, Thursday presents another opportunity for the Rebel faithful to show up and show out—something that may well be the difference in the game.

What’s at Stake

The stakes could hardly be higher. For Ole Miss, a win or a loss in this one game may well be what determines if the SJB Pavilion serves as an NCAA Tournament venue come March—an ultra-critical advantage for a team that has thrived at home and been more vulnerable on the road, and would in turn give them a clearer path to a third Sweet 16 appearance in four years.

For LSU, the opportunity is equally significant. A road victory in a place where no other team has won this season would give the Tigers a resume boost of their own and strengthen their case to rise from a projected No. 2 seed to a No. 1 seed.

Rest versus resilience. Depth versus defense. Seeding implications on both sides. Thursday night in Oxford promises to be one of the most consequential games of the season for both teams, and a defining moment for Ole Miss’s postseason ambitions, with a chance for a win against one of the nation’s best teams who they’ve also lost 12 of the last 13 to. Either way, the stakes have rarely been higher in recent years.

Ole Miss welcomes LSU to the SJB Pavilion on Thursday, February 19 at 8:00 pm on ESPN.