Egg Bowl Preview: CFP Stakes, a Coaching Saga, and a Rivalry Loaded With Pressure

OXFORD, Miss.— Two days from now, No. 7 Ole Miss will walk into Davis Wade Stadium with history —and chaos — swirling around them. At 10–1 and sitting at No. 7 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, the Rebels are on the verge of what would be their first 11-win regular season in program history, and, more importantly, their long-awaited first berth in the College Football Playoff.

Standing in their way, of course, is Jeff Lebby’s Mississippi State Bulldogs —a 5–6 (1-6 SEC) squad fighting for bowl eligibility and eager to snap a two-year postseason drought. In almost any other year, that alone would be enough to inject the Egg Bowl with its usual volatility, edge, and anticipation. But this year, the buildup to the 122nd meeting between the Magnolia State rivals is being consumed by a storyline larger than the game itself: the future of Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin.

A Game Overshadowed by Lane Kiffin’s Looming Decision

Speculation around Kiffin’s next move has reached a tipping point unlike anything the program has seen in years, fueled by his repeated deflections of questions regarding his future and by confirmed reports that both LSU and Florida have made him official offers.

Last week’s statement from Ole Miss Athletics Director Keith Carter only increased the intensity surrounding the uncertainty of the Rebel coach’s future, as the Rebels’ AD revealed that an official decision on what’s next for Kiffin will be announced the day following Black Friday’s Egg Bowl showdown.

The impending announcement guarantees that, regardless of Thursday’s outcome, headlines will immediately pivot to the question of whether Kiffin will stay for a seventh season in Oxford or bolt for another SEC job, even with a playoff berth likely to follow. For the players, though, the message has been about blocking out the noise. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and others have emphasized that their focus is solely on the game, even as speculation escalates around their coach.

What’s at Stake?

While Ole Miss could reasonably expect to make the playoff regardless of Friday’s outcome, there’s no question that losing to what would then be a 6-6 team would drop their seeding and potentially cost them a home playoff game, if not a playoff appearance, itself. Winning would remove all doubt and put a stamp on what is already one of the greatest seasons in Ole Miss history.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, has the simplest motivation of anyone: win and reach a bowl. Lose, and the postseason drought continues. In a rivalry that thrives on emotion and chaos, that desperation makes the Bulldogs far more dangerous than their record suggests.

Ole Miss Offense: One of the Nation’s Best

If there’s one factor that has fueled the Rebels’ rise into the playoff picture, it’s their explosive, relentless offense. The Rebels rank No. 1 in the SEC and No. 3 in the nation in total offense this season with an average of 493.8 yards per game and are ranked No. 13 in the country in scoring offense with an average of 37.2 points per game.

Running back Kewan Lacy has emerged as one of the conference’s most dynamic backs, ranking second in rushing yards among all SEC running backs. With Chambliss leading a balanced offensive attack and an offensive line that has improved as the season has gone along, Ole Miss enters the game as the unquestionable favorite on that side of the ball.

Mississippi State Defense: A Vulnerable Unit

The biggest mismatch on paper is Mississippi State’s defense, which statistically has struggled throughout the season. The Bulldogs give up 28 points per game, the second-worst mark in the SEC, and allow 393 total yards per game, the league’s second-worst number in that category as well.

Against one of the country’s most efficient and explosive offenses, that poses a significant problem for Lebby’s squad. If Ole Miss finds rhythm early, the matchup could get away from the Bulldogs quickly.

Mississippi State Offense: A Legitimate Threat

But there is one area where Mississippi State presents a real challenge: offense. The Bulldogs average 31 points per game—and 36 points per game at home—while putting up 395 yards per outing. Their ability to control tempo and move the ball consistently makes them a legitimate threat against an Ole Miss defense that has been frequently cited as the team’s Achilles Heel all season.

Ole Miss allows 323 yards per game, which on paper appears respectable, but the deeper issue has been run defense. The Rebels surrender 140 rushing yards per game, the fourth-most of any SEC squad. Against a motivated rival with a respectable ground game (and playing on the road), this will be an area of concern, no doubt.

A Better Team Than Its Record Suggests

Although Mississippi State sits at 5–6, the Bulldogs are not far from being 8–3. This is a team that took both Texas and Tennessee to overtime and lost to Florida by just two points. Any of those three games could have very easily gone the other way, and the conversations surrounding this game would be quite different. That level of competitiveness against SEC competition proves that Ole Miss cannot afford defensive lapses or an undisciplined, mistake-filled performance while playing against its rival who would love nothing more than to both make a bowl game and spoil the Rebels’ hopes of hosting a first-round playoff game.

Final Thoughts and Outlook

The latest betting odds favor the Rebels by 7.5, a number that is far from unmerited. On paper, nearly every metric favors the Rebels. They have the superior offense, the deeper roster, motivation to secure their CFP ticket, and, at least for the moment, the better coach. But it is no secret that rivalry games (especially this one) don’t always unfold according to logic, or in the way that one would expect on paper.

Mississippi State will be desperate. Ole Miss will be under enormous pressure due to both what’s on the line and to block out the distractions regarding Kiffin’s future, which may well hover over every snap, despite the players’ insistence that it won’t.

Still, the Rebels should win this game. If their offense performs to its usual standard and the defense avoids major breakdowns, Ole Miss will secure its first-ever 11-win regular season and punch its ticket to the College Football Playoff.

But make no mistake: it will not be a cakewalk. The Egg Bowl rarely is.

Ole Miss will take on Mississippi State on Friday, November 28, at 11:00 a.m. CT on ABC.