Week 1 Staff Predictions: Ole Miss vs. Georgia State

OXFORD, Miss. — The Lane Kiffin era enters another chapter as Ole Miss kicks off the 2025 season Saturday against Georgia State at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The Rebels look to start fast after a rough and unexpected three-loss season a year ago, while the Panthers hope to play spoiler in another road SEC matchup. 

Each week, The Rebel Walk staff will give their thoughts on what to expect — from bold predictions to score forecasts and the players who could swing the game. Here’s how our team sees Week 1 shaping up:

Adam Brown

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Georgia State 14

X-Factor Player: Austin Simmons

Simmons throws for 280 yards with three touchdowns against the Panthers defense.

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss defense causes three turnovers

The Rebels’ defense is replacing a lot off the line that is now in the NFL, but look for the defense to cause three turnovers in the contest.

Billy Kuhl

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Georgia State 17

X-Factor Player: Dae’Quan Wright & Cayden Lee

Both Wright and Lee are major returners to the 2025 Rebels squad. On Saturday, look out for both of them to have explosive games as Lee and Simmons have already discussed their friendship on and off the field over the last 3 years. Lee’s talent also finds him open and in space for some big time catches. As for Wright, he could be in the works for a big game as it is Simmons’ first collegiate start and as a veteran tight end, he could be Simmons best friend when he is in trouble.

Bold Prediction: Georgia State will pose more of a threat than lines say

With the young and relatively new squad the Rebels are putting on the gridiron this weekend, Georgia State could find themselves in this ball game at any point. Particularly in the first half before both squads have time to make adjustments. However, I think the Rebels will be fine in the second half pulling away for the victory.

Daylan Flowers

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Georgia State 10

X-Factor Player: TJ Dottery

Being here for a few years, and having the green dot last year and again this season, Dottery seems poised and ready for another solid season. As a leader, the linebacker corps has seemed to rally around him through fall camp, and he’s embraced the role of being one of the leaders of the team. His expectations are high, but he seems happy as ever right now and excited to start the season. 

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss secondary forces two turnovers

Coming into Fall camp, a lot of fans questioned whether or not the secondary had enough quality players; however that unit  seems to be the position group that has grown the most throughout camp. Kapena Gushiken and Sage Ryan look to be the starters, and with the emergence of Jaylon Braxton and TJ Banks from injuries, the secondary seems to have the whole arsenal they expected. 

David Walker

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 76, Georgia State 6

X-Factor Player:

Austin Simmons will easily surpass 400 yards total offense, hit an 85 in QBR, and climb a little in the updated Heisman odds. And down in the trenches, I look for Zxavian Harris to be a major force in controlling the line of scrimmage.

Bold Prediction:

The last time Ole Miss opened at home as a 35-point favorite was just two years ago against FCS Mercer, winning 73-7. Then last year it was FCS Furman who the Rebs beat 76-0 as a 45-point favorite. This year, it’s 35-point underdog G5 Georgia State, a team that’s had its share of whippings but has a revamped roster. They had only one conference win a year ago but the atmosphere is extremely positive.

Under Lane Kiffin, the Rebels have covered six of eight when favored by 30-plus, but really pour it on in season openers. The key to winning national championships in the title-game era is quite simple: Score a Ton, Surrender None. Scoring margins among the national championship teams since 1998 are phenomenally strong. And it starts with Game One.

My prediction is Kiffin will turn on the jets and once again break 70, while Pete Golding’s defense will hold Georgia State to single figures, if any.

Donna Sprabery

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 52, Georgia State 17

X-Factor Player: Austin Simmons and Cayden Lee

Simmons will shine with a steady performance, including a rushing touchdown that energizes the crowd. Lee will be the go-to target, piling up a large number of receptions to keep drives alive and stretch the Panther defense.

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss defense dominates the trenches

The Ole Miss defense will dominate the trenches, recording 6 sacks and forcing 2 fumble recoveries, setting the tone physically from the first snap. The Rebels win by 5 touchdowns and a field goal, sending a clear message that their depth and balance make them tough to stop.

Evie Van Pelt

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 56, Georgia State 3

X-Factor Player: Kewan Lacy

Look for the Missouri transfer running back to go wild in his debut for the red and blue. Lane Kiffin is incredibly focused on having an improved ground game over last season, and that will be evident in game one. He’ll want Lacy to have plenty of reps before taking on Kentucky the following weekend — and Lacy will make the most of them, going for more than 130 yards. 

Bold Prediction:

Transfer defensive linemen Da’Shawn Womack and Princewill Umanmielen are eager to show why defensive coordinator Pete Golding believes there won’t be a dropoff from last season, even though so many of the former Rebel d-linemen are now playing in the NFL. Look for the Rebels to sack Georgia State transfer senior QB Christian Veilleux more than six times. 

Jacob Quaglino

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 59, Georgia State 10

X-Factor Player: Austin Simmons

This will be the first look we get of Austin Simmons as the starter of this team, as well as the first look we get at the slew of new faces on Pete Golding’s defense. Fortunately, the opener against the Panthers should serve as a great opportunity for Kiffin and company to warm up and prep for a trip to Lexington the following week. Kiffin’s offenses have always been among the best in the conference, and there’s no doubt that he’ll be able to develop a QB such as Simmons to his full potential, and kicking off the season against a Georgia State squad that was a Sun Belt bottom dweller a year ago will serve as a great starting point to set him down the path to greatness. Be on the lookout for a resounding Rebel victory, with the Panthers possibly putting up a few points in garbage time. 

Bold Prediction: Austin Simmons throws for more than 400 yards and at least 3 TD’s

A young QB loaded with proven potential and coached by Lane Kiffin taking on a defense that surrendered 21-or-more points in every game a season ago sets the stage for what could be a stellar debut as the Rebels’ starting QB. Throw in the fact that Simmons will have no shortage of options to throw to — including former highly-touted recruit Caleb Cunningham and incoming transfers tight ends Luke Hasz and Dae’Quan Wright — and there’s no reason why Simmons can’t have a field day as the Rebs kick off year six of the Kiffin era in Oxford.

Jordan Merritt

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 48, Georgia State 13

X-Factor Player: TJ Dottery

This Georgia State running game could be the most significant danger to Ole Miss, with a familiar face amongst them in Rashad Amos. The defensive front will be vital in stopping the offense, but on those occasions when they break through, TJ Dottery will do what he does best: hit the ball carrier hard and stop big plays.

Bold Prediction: Three Ole Miss wide receivers to have over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown

The pass game goes to work under new quarterback Austin Simmons. The lefty will be unstoppable, feeding three wide receivers touchdowns and over 100 receiving yards. I’ll go one step further and say Harrison Wallace III, De’Zhaun Stribling, and Traylon Ray will be the guys.

Kam Wicker

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 55, Georgia State 20

X-Factor Player: Zxavian Harris

No, he’s certainly not Walter Nolen. But outside of Suntarine Perkins, Harris may be the most impactful returning player for the Rebels in 2025. I expect the big man upfront to wreak havoc on the Georgia State offensive line and prove this Landshark defense hasn’t lost a step. 

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss scores a pair of defensive touchdowns

I’m going all defense with these predictions and saying the Rebels will find a way to add points not scored by the offense. Expect a very deep secondary to be flying around early and maybe we get another ‘thick-six’ from one of the big fellas this year. For predictions sake, give me Kapena Gushiken with a pick-six and Perkins with a scoop-and-score touchdown.  

Sierra Gann

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 35, Georgia State 20

X-Factor Player: Austin Simmons

The whole offense runs smoothly with Simmons playing. His passing and ability to make plays with his legs will be essential. 

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss scores on a 50+ yard TD

Ole Miss scores on a play of 50+ yards — the Rebels will have plenty of speed on offense and the one big touchdown could change the game. Ole Miss has too much talent on offense and should pull away after halftime.

Zach Moreth

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Georgia State 13

X-Factor Player: Harrison Wallace

I predict Wallace will catch at least one touchdown and record over 100 yards against the Panthers.

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss defense forces an interception and a plethora of sacks

I expect an interception from the Ole Miss defense, and six or more sacks from the Rebel defensive line.

Up next:

The week 1 matchup between Ole Miss and Georgia State kicks off Saturday, August. 30 at 6:45 p.m. CT on the SEC Network. Stay tuned in with The Rebel Walk for all your game coverage.