TJ’s Takeaways: What We Learned in Ole Miss’ 63-75 Loss at Kentucky

OXFORD, Miss. — Last night, Ole Miss men’s basketball suffered its third consecutive loss on the road. The Rebels were defeated 63-75 by a Kentucky team that needed to get back on track at home where, prior to this contest, the Wildcats had lost three straight. Now, Ole Miss will return home for its own potential get-right game against Missouri on Saturday.

(Click here for box score.)

The Rebels played competitively for the better part of the first half. Towards the tail end, Kentucky found success and went on a 25-6 run that gave the Wildcats a 43-29 lead at halftime. The rest of the contest was largely even. Ole Miss was led by Matthew Murrell and Jaemyn Brakefield who each added 16 points. Allen Flanigan would also add a double-digit performance. Ole Miss would shoot 38% from the field and finish 5-22 from three.

This series, TJ’s Takeaways, is here to help identify things that really stand out from the games, things you may not be able to find from a box score. If you’re looking for a recap of the game, don’t worry we’ve got you covered. Check it out HERE.

Pressure and Turnovers

There was a noticeable difference in the energy and intensity from John Calipari’s squad tonight. The Wildcats upped the pressure and forced 12 turnovers by Ole Miss. Kentucky also added 12 blocks and 8 steals. Ole Miss struggled to find success with the pressure, and outside of Matthew Murrell, the Rebels struggled to find answers in the first half. The rim protection from Kentucky also kept Ole Miss at bay and the Rebels only were able to get 12 points inside for the first half.

This pressure and pace also affects Ole Miss as a team as the Rebels have a tighter rotation. The tired legs and early foul trouble for Moussa Cisse could be part of the reason Ole Miss struggled to finish out the first half. The Wildcats were able to get 31 points from their bench.

In the second half, Ole Miss channeled a bit of that energy for themselves. With flashes similar to the South Carolina game, the Rebels started off the second half with their own juice on the defensive end. Shortly after the beginning of the half, Ole Miss went on their own 10-2 run that cut the deficit to six. While Ole Miss didn’t make enough shots to win this game, the Rebels did show a good amount of fight, something they have done all year under Chris Beard regardless of game situations.

Shooting Woes Take Their Toll

The expectation was that for Ole Miss to win this game, the Rebels would have to score in the 80s or potentially into the 90s to stay with Kentucky. Seeing the Wildcats with 75 total points at the end of the game would normally be a positive if you only saw their score. Excluding this game, Coach Calipari’s group was averaging over 92 points a game at home. In retrospect, 75 is a winnable score for teams playing Kentucky at Rupp arena.

However, Ole Miss didn’t have such luck tonight as the shots weren’t falling. The Rebels, who normally shoot 38.7% from three, struggled with one of their roughest shooting performances of the season. Against Kentucky, Ole Miss shot 5-22 from three for a 22.7% clip. It would be one thing if the Rebels had struggled to get quality looks, but Ole Miss did some good things to free up looks. Early on, a lot of dribble penetration — especially off ball screen action — led to kickback attempts that were largely left uncovered. Matthew Murrell led the way, shooting 3-8 from three. Jaylen Murray struggled with an 0-5 night and Jaemyn Brakefield finished 1-3.

The Rebels were limited on the inside as Ugonna Onyenso recorded 10 blocks, with a vast majority occurring early in the game. That protection allowed Kentucky to add pressure on the outside and led to those drive and kick opportunities, and if not, kept the ball out on the perimeter.

The Margin for Error is Slimming

While the blistering start Ole Miss began the season with has cooled, the Rebels’ NCAA tournament resume is still in a good place. As of February 14, Ole Miss still only has one loss in Quad 2-Quad 4. That’s a good thing at this point in the season. If the rest of the teams hold their quad placement, the Rebels would be 2-5 in Quad 1 and 16-1 in Q2-Q4.

That’s a solid resume on paper; however, Ole Miss is firmly on the NCAA tournament bubble at the moment. As the season is going into its final stretch, we have an idea of what the Rebels to do to make their resume stand out.

From here on, the goal is simple: try to steal a Quad one game if you can and don’t suffer any crushing losses. Both upcoming Missouri games are considered must-wins. Ole Miss has three Quad 2 games remaining, and two of those are at home (South Carolina and Texas A&M), while they face Georgia on the road. Ideally, you win those games  Then, Ole Miss has two Quad 1 opportunities coming against Mississippi State and Alabama. ‘

I’ve said it before, but this next four-game stretch will be critical for Ole Miss with three home games, where the Rebels have excelled this season, and two Quad 1 opportunities. If Ole Miss can get through that with a 2-2 or even 3-1 record, it will put the Rebels in a good spot for the home stretch.

Winning the games you should in the lower quads will have Ole Miss hovering around .500 in SEC play heading into the tournament, which should be good enough to get them in the NCAA tourney, barring a collapse. On the flip side, adding a big win against Mississippi State and Alabama could catapult the Rebels higher with another strong win. Those Quad 1 losses don’t hurt, but the wins do add a lot.

Below is the remaining schedule in order with Quad ranking

• Feb. 17 vs Missouri – Q3
• Feb. 21 @ Mississippi State – Q1
• Feb. 24 vs South Carolina – Q2
• Feb. 28 vs Alabama – Q1
• Mar. 2 @ Missouri – Q3
• Mar. 5 @ Georgia – Q2
• Mar. 9 vs Texas A&M – Q2

Next Up

The Rebels matchup against Missouri on Feb. 17 tips off at 7:30 p.m. (CT) and will be broadcast on SEC Network.