Scouting the Opposition: Ole Miss Hosts In-State Rival Mississippi State

OXFORD, Miss. — After back-to-back victories last week, Ole Miss men’s basketball is looking to continue its winning ways. The Rebels (17-3, 4-3 SEC) are set to host Mississippi State (14-6, 3-4) tonight in the first rivalry game of the Chris Beard era. We’ve got all the information you need for what Mississippi State brings to the court as well as some keys for Ole Miss heading into this game.

Following the big win in College Station, Ole Miss has found itself back in the NCAA tournament conversation. Now this group has the opportunity to add to that resume tonight. The Rebels also have the chance to continue the home winning streak they are on, which currently sits at 12-0 at home and 11-0 in the SJB Pavilion. (They also won their throwback game in the Tad Pad.)

Coach Beard’s group has begun to find its way on the defensive end over the last five games. Ole Miss ranks in the top four for defensive ratings over that span. The group has also been productive on the offensive glass and converting on those second-chance opportunities. In order to continue this winning streak, the Rebels will have to continue that success on the offensive glass while also controlling it on the defensive end.

As Ole Miss returns home to Oxford to face an up-and-down Mississippi State opponent, I want to be the first to welcome you to another edition of “Scouting the Opposition,” the Mississippi State Edition.

Who are the Mississippi State Bulldogs?

Heading into year number two in Starkville, head coach Chris Jans is looking to take the next step in leading this Bulldog program. Last season, Mississippi State made the NCAA tournament and achieved a 21-win season. The Bulldogs had a hot start to the year before finishing 8-10 in SEC play which was tied for 9th in the SEC.

This year, the Bulldogs returned a large portion of that core that led them to the NCAA tournament. Chris Jans was able to retain several seniors including Tolu Smith, DJ Jeffries and Dashawn Davis. Then, Jans went out and put together a recruiting class that featured two of the top ranked JUCO players in Trey Fort and JaQuan Scott. They were also able to sign three high school players in the 2023 cycle, including Mississippi native Josh Hubbard. In the transfer portal, Jans went to the mountain state to recruit a pair of transfers in WVU big man Jimmy Bell and Marshall scorer Andrew Taylor.

Things were lined up for Mississippi State to take that next jump this year. However, they experienced a rocky start to the year as Preseason All-SEC big man Tolu Smith had to miss a portion of the year with a foot injury that occurred on October 5th. But this created some time for the Bulldogs to reinvent themselves in Smith’s absence. Heading into Tuesday night’s contest the Bulldogs have compiled a 14-6 record and are 3-4 in SEC play.

The Bulldogs have a NET rating of 36th. On their resume, highlights include wins over Tennessee and Auburn, both of whom Ole Miss has played this season. Other notable wins come against Northwestern and Washington State on a neutral site. Some of the notable losses for Mississippi State include a game against Georgia Tech, at home to Alabama and at home to Southern. Below we list out their resume in terms of NET quads.

Q1: 3-4

Q2: 3-1

Q3: 2-0

Q4: 6-1

The biggest alert with this Mississippi State team has been their inability to win on the road. To date, the Bulldogs are 0-4 on the road. For Ole Miss, this a home Q2 opportunity that will likely be cemented there barring some sort of hot streak or cold spell. The two teams do have common opponents where the Bulldogs have home wins against Auburn Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Ole Miss had defeated Vanderbilt. The Rebels also have a win over Florida, a team that Mississippi State lost to on the road.

Scouting Mississippi State

Before we highlight certain players to note for Mississippi State, it’s fair to dissect the strategy of Coach Jans. Offensively, State will look to slow the game down more and keep it at its pace. They are below average in terms of tempo and enjoy running a 4-1 motion offense. Essentially, this uses a lot of off-ball movement to keep defensive players on a swivel in an effort to free up players and find post opportunities.

On defense, Jans deploys an interesting defense that has shades of both denial and pack line defense. This means players will be on the line, up the line to limit easy swings, forcing players to make more players off their own dribble. A lot of teams will maneuver around this with screens trying to free up the handler.

Tolu Smith

Starting off, it’s tough to talk about Mississippi State without talking about Tolu Smith. As mentioned earlier, Smith was a preseason All-SEC player and in his limited return to action has been the driving force in the Bulldog offense. In only eight games this season, Smith is averaging a career high of 17.1 points per game, as well as a career high in FG% (61%). This year he has reached the double-figures mark in seven of his eight appearances and has scored 20+ three times.

Smith has a usage percentage of 29.5% this season. That’s a similar number to his usage last season which ranked 3rd overall in the SEC. Smith largely operates out of the post where he’s a mobile guy for his 245-lb frame and likes to establish position early. Last season Smith had 192 post-up possessions where 51.6% came from the left block while 34.9% came from the right. Smith uses smooth quickness to get easy post touches and opportunities where his strength allows for easy finishes. Outside of the post, State has him sit in the dunker spot, flash middle, or cut through the lane at times to generate more looks.

Josh Hubbard

The second player to mention is freshman Josh Hubbard, a name that many in the Mississippi and Ole Miss community may know. Hubbard hails from nearby Jackson where he set the all-time scoring record for prep hoops in the state of Mississippi. He was also an Ole Miss commit before de-committing and enrolling at Mississippi State.

Despite starting only one game, Hubbard has made largely the biggest impact on this team to date with some of the best high-usage shooting in the SEC, let alone in college basketball. Hubbard averages 14.9 points per game in only 24.1 minutes per game. A lot of Hubbard’s success has been from his ability to knock down the perimeter three. In the SEC, only one player makes more threes per game and that’s Wade Taylor IV from Texas A&M. Hubbard’s 29.7% usage percentage is also tied for 3rd in the SEC behind Taylor IV (33%) and Rob Dillingham of Kentucky (29.9%).

As a scorer, Hubbard is lethal from the perimeter either off the spot-up or off the dribble. He attempts 7.8 threes per contest. State will use a lot of ball-screen action to free up space and give him opportunities to create. On the year, Hubbard has 63 3PA on spot-up opportunities and 43 from pick-n-roll handling sets.

Others to Watch

Other names to know for this Bulldog team are Cameron Matthews, Shakeel Moore, DJ Jeffries and Dashawn Davis. All of these players bring senior-level experience to the court and average between 5-10 points per game each. Like many teams have done against Ole Miss this season, Mississippi State will look to rebound on the offensive end. This group averages 12.3 offensive rebounds per game and its 34.8 offensive rebound percentage ranks in the 91st percentile.

Where Ole Miss has the advantage on this Mississippi State team is that it has been two different groups at home and on the road. At home, the Bulldogs have a defensive rating that ranks in the 99th percentile of college basketball. On the road that figure drops to the 9th percentile.

When at home, Mississippi State averages over 75 points per contest — but that figure drops to 67 on the road. Overall, the group has struggled to rebound on the road, find quality passes and hasn’t hit shots to the same degree. This follows the trend of many teams struggling on the road. Ole Miss can use this as an advantage with the hype surrounding the home team. As we mention above, the Rebels are undefeated at home this season.

The four road losses for Mississippi State have been to Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia Tech. All of these losses have been by greater than six points with two of which coming in the last two weeks.

Keys for Ole Miss

This game, if it follows the trend, could be a sneaky opportunity for Ole Miss. Adding another Q2 win before the streak of Q1 games can be very beneficial to the Rebels. In order for Ole Miss to best take advantage here are a few keys to help put them over the top.

1. Be the Atmosphere Seen Elsewhere

Earlier this year, Ole Miss went to Tennessee in front of a rowdy crowd in Knoxville. Then they went to Auburn and played a game in the Jungle. At this point, people questioned whether Ole Miss could even compete on the road. Now’s the time for people to start thinking the same when coming to Oxford. The students have done a terrific job of showing up. The game has been ruled a sell-out and there should be near 100% attendance in the Pavilion.

This is a Mississippi State team who has had legit struggles on the road, a team who doesn’t shoot as well, doesn’t pass as well, and doesn’t defend as well when not playing in their gym. There is a legit home-court advantage in college basketball and tonight is the time to show it. This is a time that, yes, fans can have a direct impact on this game.

2. Defensive Post Positioning

It hasn’t taken long to figure out Ole Miss’ bread and butter; on defense the Rebels want to switch as much as they can (except certain situations) and they want to keep the ball away from the top of the key and the slots. Tuesday night should be no different, Ole Miss’ bigs have a tough task in dealing with Tolu Smith.

However, Ole Miss will look to create favorable defensive opportunities to keep the Bulldogs from having a clear line to pass it into him. What the Rebels can do is by keeping the ball away from the middle, they limit some of the passes that State likes to feed into Smith with a defender on his back. These give Smith a direct option to go either way he feels and it becomes that much more tough to defend. If the ball stays on the wings more, Ole Miss can quarter that pass which both Jamarion Sharp and Moussa Cisse have both defended so well. It’s what makes that Hakeem Percentage  (32.1%) one of the best in the country.

3. Go Towards the Basket

In the four games Mississippi State has played on the road, the Bulldogs have drawn 14 fouls per game. They have taken an average of 12.3 free throws per game. That free throws average is in the zero percentile. Against them, teams who have hosted the Bulldogs have, in turn, experienced a lot more success in getting to the line, averaging nearly double the amount of free throws of Mississippi State with 24.0 per game. It’s simple, but it can make a huge difference. We saw towards the end of the game against Texas A&M how important free throws are. If the Rebels follow the trends, then they could have an opportunity to cash in on some easy points.

Game info

Ole Miss hosts Mississippi State Tuesday night at 7:30 p.m. on the SEC Network.