Ole Miss Men’s Basketball Visits No. 7 Alabama Looking for Chance to Steal Road Win
TUSCALOOSA — There is still plenty of work to do for Ole Miss men’s basketball this season, and it starts tonight as head coach Kermit Davis’ team heads to Tuscaloosa to take on the No. 7 Crimson Tide in the Rebels’ first road game after their recent five-game home stretch.
Last time out, Ole Miss missed a chance for a big win after falling in a close one, 63-59, to then No. 7 Tennessee. The Rebels fought valiantly in the loss but couldn’t quite pull off the win.
Despite the loss, Ole Miss rose in the NET rankings following the Tennessee game. Losing quality games doesn’t necessarily hurt one’s resume; it’s finding wins against quality competition that matters. And that’s where tonight’s game comes in.
Another opportunity is knocking tonight as Ole Miss faces off against the Tide. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM CT and the game will be broadcast on SEC Network.
The Tide enters this one fresh off a big win over Mississippi State. Alabama also has a big game against Kentucky coming on Saturday, so might the timing be right for the Rebels to garner a win?
“I’m sure our players know that it’s hanging out there, so it definitely could be a trap game, if we’re not mature enough to handle it.“
Alabama head coach Nate Oats
The Rebels could use a big win early on here in SEC play. Joe Lunardi recently released his SEC bracketology, and in that post he writes: “Ole Miss needs work to get back into the NCAA tournament conversation.”
That work begins tonight, so let’s take a look at how Ole Miss matches up against Alabama.
A look at the Ole Miss vs. Bama Matchup
Against the Tide, the Rebels will have an opportunity to get into an offensive flow in a game that is likely to have more possessions and opportunities. Daeshun Ruffin will look to make a little bit more of an impact and Matthew Murrell is looking to shake a shooting slump after starting the year on fire.
Something to watch will be the impact of freshmen TJ Caldwell and Amaree Abram, who have now made starts on the year. Abram has averaged 9.1 points per game (PPG) on the season while Caldwell has averaged 4.8 PPG. The two have made some strides throughout their first campaign on campus and are looking to build on that as we get more into SEC play.
Freshmen Amaree Abram (1) and TJ Caldwell (2) are making an impact this season. (Photo credit: Kiana Dale/Ole Miss)
On Alabama’s side, Nate Oats is known for his offensive pace and the amount of possessions his teams garner. That is no different this year as the Tide is currently 3rd in the NCAA through KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo rating. While Ole Miss plays at a slower pace, the two have similarities in their rebounding and defense.
Ole Miss currently ranks 35th in offensive rebounding and has the likes of Jayveous McKinnis, Myles Burns, and others to help lead that. The Rebels currently have seven players with a total rebounding percentage over 10%.
As a group, Ole Miss averages 37.7 rebounds per game. Alabama currently leads the nation in rebounding with 47.1. Part of that can be attributed to the large number of possessions Bama has. The Tide is also No. 1 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Both Noah Clowney and Brandon Miller are second in the SEC with 8.8 rebounds per game.
As we know, Coach Davis constructed his roster with an emphasis on defense. The Rebels brought in multiple defensive player-of-the-year recipients, and the defensive end of the court has been the strength of this Ole Miss team. Defensively, the Rebels rank in the 88th percentile in man defense and in the 86th percentile in defense altogether.
Alabama also has a really good defense despite its fast-paced offensive identity. The Tide ranks in the 87th percentile in total defense. A lot of that can be attributed to the play of Ohio transfer Mark Sears and freshman Brandon Miller.
Keys to the Contest
Limiting the Offensive Rebounds
The Tide brings plenty of size to the table, but this offense plays fast, passes up good shots for great ones, and loves to take the three. Nate Oats’ team attempts 29.4 three-point attempts per game. Grabbing 14.3 offensive rebounds per game allows the Tide to get multiple looks offensively.
In order for Ole Miss to effectively dominate this game, the Rebels need to take away those extra shot attempts. With the amount of threes taken, there will be some long rebounds and Alabama will crash. Limiting the chances for any extra points can go a long way to keeping that score down. Alabama will want to score in the 90s, while Ole Miss looks to keep it in the 60s.
Take Away the Outside from Brandon Miller
The SEC’s leading scorer, Miller has burst onto the scene as a freshman at Alabama. Averaging 19.2 PPG and shooting 44.8% from three, Miller really knows how to shoot it. His size allows him to elevate over smaller defenders and he can take bigs off the bounce.
Miller has a 67% effective field goal percentage from deep and has attempted 94 threes this season. Most of those have been catch-and-shoot threes with a large portion being guarded. Ole Miss could excel by finding a way to force him to attack off the dribble and lure him into the paint. His dribble jumper percentage is solid, but Miller has struggled when going in for layups around the rim where his average dips to 37.5%.
It will likely be Myles Burns who finds himself matched up with Miller tonight. The 6-6 guard has been a huge defender and rebounder for Ole Miss this season, and this could be his toughest matchup yet.
Win in Transition
One area to watch is the transition game. Ole Miss is at its best when the Rebels get opportunities to run out in transition — especially when their defense turns into offense. They currently score at 1.061 points per possession, the highest of any play type per Synergy Sports.
Ole Miss’ four leading players in transition baskets all rank greater than the 50th percentile (Murrell, Abram, Jaemyn Brakefield, and Burns).
On the defensive end, Ole Miss has done historically well at stopping transition baskets this year, only giving up 0.936 points per possession per transition play. The Tide, however, loves to get out and run and has almost twice as many (201) transition plays than what Ole Miss has defended (110).
If Ole Miss can capitalize on opportunities, that could go a long way to jump starting the Rebels’ offense as Alabama turns the ball over an average of 17.1 times per game. That is fourth in all of the NCAA.
(Feature image credit: Kiana Dale, Ole Miss)
TJ Oxley
TJ Oxley is the Vice President of Operations and the Director of Community Relations for The Rebel Walk. He is also the Director of Basketball Content and Senior Basketball Writer. He has over five years of experience providing in-depth analysis of college basketball through multiple platforms. A former MBA graduate of Ole Miss, TJ started with The Rebel Walk in 2019.
