Track Meet or Grind-It-Out Fight? Ole Miss and Miami Clash for a Title Spot

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SCOTTSDALE — It seemed like it was only yesterday that Ole Miss was tasked with beating a team from New Orleans to earn a trip to New Orleans, and now Pete Golding’s squad will need to get past a team from Miami to punch a ticket to Miami.

The road Ole Miss has taken to reach the College Football Playoff semifinals has already been historic and unprecedented in nature, coming in the messy aftermath of the former head coach’s departure and the immediate promotion of the then-defensive coordinator to the head coaching position. But now, Golding’s squad only needs one more win for a chance to reach the pinnacle of college football.

Fresh off a stunning and thrilling Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia in the quarterfinals, the Rebels head west to Glendale for the Fiesta Bowl to face Miami tonight in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Miami enters as a field goal favorite with Vegas appearing to have more faith in Mario Cristobal’s defense than it does in Pete Golding’s offense, with an O/U of 52.5 and thus an implied predicted final score of roughly 28 to 25 in favor of the Hurricanes, despite the Rebels’ offense averaging about 12 more points per game than that.

Ole Miss, coming off a thrilling upset win over Georgia in the Big Easy, was a roughly touchdown underdog that very few in the national college football media expected to win a trip to the desert. Miami punched its ticket in equally unexpected fashion, downing Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog in the Cotton Bowl. Now, two teams riding the emotional high of unexpected signature wins meet with a national championship berth on the line.

For Ole Miss, this game represents both a continuation of an improbable run and a referendum on how real and sustainable the Sugar Bowl performance truly was.

An Offense Built to Compete With Anyone

Miami’s defense is among the nation’s elite, but so is the Rebels’ offense.

Ole Miss brings one of the most explosive units in the country to Arizona, averaging 496.2 yards per game, good for second-best in the entire FBS. The Rebels also average 37.6 points per contest, the tenth-best mark nationally, and have shown the ability to throw defenses off their game in just about every way possible.

At the center of it all is breakout quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has firmly established himself as one of the nation’s elite players, having finished eighth in Heisman voting. Chambliss is averaging 305 passing yards per game, has thrown 21 touchdowns to just three interceptions, and continues to wow crowds as both a passer and a play extender. His recent announcement that he intends to return to Oxford in 2026 if granted another year of eligibility only underscores how pivotal he is to the program’s present and future, an announcement that delighted fans amidst rumors that he might follow the team’s former coach to LSU.

Against Georgia—a defense that had allowed just 15.9 points per game entering the Sugar Bowl—Chambliss delivered perhaps the most impressive performance of his career. He completed 30 of 46 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns, leading an Ole Miss offense that hung 39 points on one of the nation’s stingiest defenses.

If Chambliss and the Rebels can replicate that level of efficiency, there’s no reason why they can’t set up an MLK day date with either Indiana or Oregon in Miami.

But doing so will not be easy against a Miami defense that has been suffocating and frustrating offenses all season.

Miami’s Defense: Elite, Tested, and Unafraid

Miami’s defense is arguably the best of any team in the entire FBS.

The Hurricanes are allowing just 13.1 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the FBS, and no team has scored more than 24 points against them in any non-overtime game this year. Those numbers include playoff games against a pair of offensive powerhouses.

In the playoff’s opening round, Miami held a Texas A&M offense that had been averaging 36 points per game to just a field goal the entire outing (and did so in College Station no less). Last week in the Cotton Bowl, Miami followed that up by holding Ohio State to only 14 points, well below the Buckeyes’ season average of 34.9.

Miami’s defense will not be intimidated by Trinidad Chambliss nor anyone else, and they have shown time and again their ability to shut down anyone and everyone who they face. Chambliss and co. will need to play their hearts out and go in fully expecting to be challenged in a way they never have been this season.

Undeniably, the Hurricanes’ most threatening defensive weapon is a ferocious and unforgiving defensive line that leads the nation with 46 sacks. All season they have demonstrated an ability to generate pressure with or without blitzing, collapse pockets quickly, and force quarterbacks into mistakes. For Ole Miss, that makes the performance of its offensive line more critical than words can explain.

The Rebels do have reason for optimism on that front. Ole Miss ranks first in the SEC in fewest sacks allowed, giving up just 18 all season. That improvement is the product of offensive line play that has improved as the season has gone along and Chambliss’s mobility, versatility, and decision-making. If Ole Miss can once again protect its quarterback and avoid being one dimensional it may be able to neutralize Miami’s greatest strength just enough to keep the offense clicking.

The Defensive Question That Will Decide Everything

As impressive as Ole Miss’ offensive numbers are, the biggest question heading into the Fiesta Bowl is whether its defense can hold its own.

The Rebels turned in perhaps their most encouraging defensive performance of the season against Georgia, making life difficult for quarterback Gunner Stockton throughout the Sugar Bowl showdown. Stockton was under pressure very frequently, having been held to just 203 passing yards, and completed only 58 percent of his passes. While Georgia still put up 34, it is worth noting that one of the Bulldogs’ scores was a defensive touchdown that came off of a strip-sack fumble return. Furthermore, the Ole Miss defense was far more aggressive, disruptive and composed than it had appeared throughout much of the year.

Still, one game does not erase a season’s worth of concerns.

In the regular season, Ole Miss struggled defensively, particularly in the secondary. Coverage lapses weren’t rare, opposing receivers were too often left wide open in space, and moving the ball simply became too easy for opposing offenses. The run defense was also a constant worry, as the Rebels have allowed a concerning 146.1 rushing yards per game.

With Miami bringing a balanced and productive offense of their own, Golding’s defense will not be able to afford to revert back to the version of itself that we saw during much of the regular season. The Hurricanes are averaging 405.6 yards per game, including 253.6 passing yards and 152 rushing yards, while scoring 31.6 points per contest. They can beat teams in multiple ways, and it will not be easy for Ole Miss to keep pace if their defensive performance against Georgia turns out to be a one-hit wonder, but if the Rebels can replicate that defensive intensity, discipline, and physicality and keep Miami out of the end zone whenever possible, an appearance in the national championship game is certainly on the table. If not, Miami’s consistency and defensive dominance will be nearly impossible to overcome.

Intangibles, Emotion, and a Program at a Crossroads

There’s no ignoring the broader storyline surrounding Ole Miss’ postseason run. The former head coach’s abrupt and controversial exit from Oxford cast uncertainty and doubt over the program just weeks ago, and Pete Golding’s sudden takeover was met with skepticism by some, but many doubts were largely silenced on New Year’s Day, which showcased a team that looked unified, resilient, fearless, and determined.

Now, Golding and the Rebels face their biggest test so far, in what is now the biggest game in program history.

Last week, the Rebel faithful flooded the Superdome in powder blue, in what was a crowd that Kirby Smart said made his Georgia team feel like they were playing a road game. If Rebel fans show up to State Farm Stadium in comparable numbers, a friendly Rebel crowd paired with an Ole Miss team ready to prove something to the world will create an unlimited supply of momentum.

Final Thoughts

Ole Miss brings an elite offense capable of overwhelming anyone. Miami counters with a defense that has shut down and created issues for nearly every offense it’s faced. Somewhere between those strengths will determine who will punch their ticket to the college football’s biggest stage.

For Ole Miss, the path is clear: protect Trinidad Chambliss, finish drives in the red zone, and prove that the defensive effort against Georgia was not a fluke.

If the Rebels do that, the improbable run continues. If not, Miami’s steadiness and defensive excellence may be too much to overcome.

Either way, Ole Miss has already made history. Now is their chance to make even more.

Ole Miss will take on Miami in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, College Football Playoff semifinals on Thursday, January 8 at 6:30 p.m. Central Time on ESPN.