Three Keys for Ole Miss to Beat Miami in the Fiesta Bowl

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SCOTTSDALE — The No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels are set to take on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. With a trip to the College Football Playoff National Championship on the line, this marks one of the most important games in program history for Ole Miss.

Both teams arrive off statement wins in the CFP quarterfinals—Ole Miss stunning the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs with a thrilling second-half comeback, and Miami toppling No. 2 Ohio State in equally impressive fashion. Riding that momentum, the Rebels aim to continue their historic run and keep their championship dreams alive.

Facing a physical, disciplined Miami team, Ole Miss will need to navigate a series of challenging matchups on both sides of the ball. Here’s a look at three keys that could help Ole Miss take the next step toward its first-ever modern era National Championship berth.

Disrupt Carson Beck

Carson Beck’s move to Miami shocked some in the college football world but the sixth year signal caller has the last laugh over Georgia as he has led Miami into the semifinals. On the season, Beck has totaled over 3,300 passing yards to go with 27 touchdowns through the air. Under Miami OC Shannon Dawson’s tutelege, Beck returned to his efficient game managing state similar to his play in 2023. 

The Ole Miss defensive front will look to get Carson Beck out of rhythm. Look for Pete Golding’s unit to apply unique blitzing concepts early on to try and rattle Beck’s internal clock. To date this season, Beck has completed 74.4% of his total passes. Looking further, Beck has been highly efficient when he can establish a rhythm with timing throws and being able to survey the field. According to PFF, the pocket has been kept clean for Beck on 84.2% of his dropbacks. In those situations, Beck has an 83.5% adjusted completion percentage and has thrown 25 touchdowns. 

Conversely, on the 70 dropbacks in which Beck has faced pressure, he has struggled to find a rhythm, completing 51.1% of his passes with a 2:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In these situations, Beck has also been prone to holding onto the bar longer and his average depth of target is twice as far down the field. Finding a way to force Beck to feel pressure will get the Miami offense out of sync and skew their typical balanced approach.

Control the Trenches

This matchup features two teams who play with physicality on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The defensive line for both teams feature playmakers who fit the bill of (not limited to) game-wreckers as Ole Miss provides strength on the interior with Will Echoles and Zxavian Harris while Miami has the pass rush off the edge with Rueben Bain Jr and Ahkeem Mesidor. Both Miami and Ole Miss also feature two of the premier running backs in the entire country in Kewan Lacy (Ole Miss) and Mark Fletcher Jr. (Miami). 

For Ole Miss, the Rebels will look to keep Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. at bay. The junior has tallied 947 rushing yards while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Miami utilizes a healthy mix of both zone and gap blocking schematics and will run Fletcher through various holes inside the tackles. Ole Miss will look to set the edge forcing Fletcher into the interior where he will meet the aforementioned Harris and Echoles. Those two are in the top ten in the NCAA for early down stops from interior defensive linemen. It won’t just be those two, though, as Ole Miss will rotate in Jamarious Brown to aid in the effort. If Ole Miss can keep some of those early down rushes at a minimum it can create an advantageous position for Ole Miss to force Carson Beck to throw further down the field. 

On the flipside, Miami will look to limit Trinidad Chambliss’ playmaking ability and stop Kewan Lacy early. The major difference between Fletcher Jr, and Lacy is that Lacy makes people miss at a higher rate. Lacy is third in the NCAA with 88 missed tackles forced. Over the last four games, Lacy has been a force with 549 rushing yards and 5.77 yards per carry.

However, where the Hurricane defense will try to make their mark is in the pass rush. Bain Jr and Mesidor have combined for 19.0 total sacks on the season. The duo will look to take advantage off the edge where they both have a pass run win percentage over 20%. Look for Ole Miss to counter the pass rush by running short quick-hitting route concepts, and utilizing thier TEs and Lacy to chip the defenders early in the play. Diego Pounds has yet to give up a sack at the LT position all season, while RT Jayden Williams has only allowed two. These two will be going up against their toughest challenge of the season on Thursday.

Play Unconscious

To put it simply, great teams execute. They follow the gameplan and limit mistakes on the field. In this game, in this situation, at this stage of the year, every team is great. Sometimes players have to rise up and make plays off script — the type of moments that aren’t scripted but swing the momentum of the game with a jaw-dropping sequence. Whether it’s a play-extending scramble with a shovel pass to convert late in the fourth or hitting your H-back TE for a go-ahead score on the road in Norman, some moments are intangible. 

Chambliss told the media following the Sugar Bowl win against Georgia: “We just want to have fun and ball out.” The same sentiment is true ahead of Ole Miss’ showdown versus Miami on Thursday night. When the game clock starts, who’s not only going to execute, but have one of those special moments to define a player’s, a team’s, or a season’s legacy. This doesn’t just involve one player as the entire Ole Miss roster could be ready to create one of these moments.

Game Info

Ole Miss and Miami are set to kick off the CFP Semifinals from State Farm Stadium at 6:30 pm CT in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, where whoever emerges victorious will take on the other semifinal winner — No. 5 Oregon or No. 1 Indiana — in the national championship.