Week 11 Staff Predictions: Ole Miss vs. The Citadel

OXFORD, Miss. — The last and only time Ole Miss football lined up against The Citadel, things looked a little different in Oxford.

It was 2005 — the Rebels were in the early stages of a rebuild after David Cutcliffe’s departure, trudging through a 3-8 season and mustering just one SEC win. Fast forward two decades, and Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are sitting pretty at No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings with legitimate postseason hopes on the line.

That 2005 meeting saw Ole Miss take a 27-7 win behind quarterback Micheal Spurlock and running back Mico McSwain, who combined for 359 yards of offense. Meanwhile, The Citadel could only manage 99 total yards.

The gap between the two programs has only widened since as the Bulldogs haven’t posted a winning season since 2016 and have made the FCS playoffs just twice in the past 20 years. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has churned out 11 winning seasons (including this year) and six New Year’s Six Bowl appearances.

Realistically, this matchup serves as a tune-up before the final stretch of the season for the Rebels. With Florida and Mississippi State looming — both potential “trap” games in their own right — Ole Miss will look to handle business early, stay healthy, and keep its playoff push on track.

Of course, crazy things can happen (cough, cough — remember that 2010 double-overtime season opener?), but anything short of an Ole Miss win would be a shocker in Oxford.

With that being said here is The Rebel Walk staff giving their best shots at predicting Ole Miss vs. The Citadel:

Adam Brown

Score prediction: Ole Miss 45, The Citadel 7

X-Factor player: Kewan Lacy

Ole Miss continues to roll on offense this week as the starters only see a half of action. Trinidad Chambliss throws for over 250 yards. While Kewan Lacy runs for over 100 with two touchdowns.

Bold prediction: Ole Miss holds The Citadel to minimal yards of offense

The Citadel comes into Oxford running around 224.6 yards on the season through nine games. Look for the Ole Miss’ defense to make it hard for the Citadel to move the ball through the air.

Billy Kuhl

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 65, The Citadel 6

X-Factor player: The Ole Miss running back room

I think the running back room will be crucial this week as I believe the game will be out of hand, allowing the running backs to take over as the Rebels chew the clock. The reason I am not writing Kewan Lacy specifically, even though I think he will have a big day, is due to the fact that Lacy will not have to take on as many carries as usual, allowing him to not beat himself up, giving guys like Logan Diggs, Damien Taylor, and even Shekai Mills-Knight opportunities to shoulder the load.

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss will send out the backup no later than half way through the third quarter

The game should be in hand by this point, allowing the starters to spectate from the sideline and allow some of the back ups and younger players to see some significant play time.

David Walker

Score prediction: Ole Miss 63, The Citadel 0

X-factor player: Trinidad Chambliss

I think during his time on the field, which may only be a half or three quarters, he will hit a very high percentage of his passes, perhaps 24-of-27 for over 300 yards.

Bold prediction: Kewan Lacy and Trinidad Chambliss both break 100 yards rushing and the Citadel is held under 175 yards of total offense.

Donna Sprabery

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 55, The Citadel 7

X-Factor player: The Ole Miss offense

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss should roll past The Citadel in Oxford. The Rebels have too much talent, too much speed, and too much at stake to let this one be close. This isn’t about if they win — it’s about how they win. With playoff hopes still alive, Ole Miss needs to make a statement and dominate from start to finish.

Evie Van Pelt

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 63, The Citadel 7

X-Factor player: Trinidad Chambliss

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss covers and Shekai Mills-Knight shines

First, the spread for this one is -53.5. Wow. Not sure I’ve seen an Ole Miss line that big. First bold prediction, though I don’t know how ‘bold’ it really is: Ole Miss covers. Second, we see true freshman running back Shekai Mills-Knight in the game and he breaks one for 70 yards.

Jacob Quaglino

Score prediction: Ole Miss 70, The Citadel 14

X-Factor player: Trinidad Chambliss

In any game such as this one, the main focus would typically be the quarterback, especially when your quarterback is one who’s been putting up Heisman-level numbers. This will be a prime opportunity for Lane Kiffin’s breakout star QB to run up his already-stellar numbers even more, which certainly might capture the attention of the Heisman trophy voters.

Bold Prediction: The Rebels hang 70 on the Bulldogs

One of the best offenses in the country should have no issues against a below .500 FCS opponent. While it’s possible that Kiffin might pull his starters in the 3rd or early 4th quarter, the high-powered Rebel offense might be nearing 70 by then already, and even if not, the team’s offensive backups may well finish that job anyway. Be on the lookout for the easiest Rebel victory of the season, with the Bulldogs possibly putting up a score or two in garbage time. 

Kam Wicker

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 62, The Citadel 6

X-Factor player: The Ole Miss receiving core

The Citadel is 53rd in FCS rush defense giving up 144 yards per game on the ground and 88th in total defense surrendering 404 yards of total offense. Safe to say, the Bulldogs have yet to see an offense of this caliber in 2025 — it will be shocking (respectfully) if they can keep pace.

I expect Kiffin to have the offense going fast as usual and scoring early so he can eventually rest his starters. With that being said, an Ole Miss receiving room that shares the spotlight well should have a big day.

Bold Prediction: We see one or two future Ole Miss starters score TDs

Whether it’s Winston Wakins Jr. having another big day, or fresh faces such as Caleb Cunningham, Dillon Alfred, Samari Reed or Shekai Mills-Knight, Saturday will be a great opportunity for the Rebels to see a glimpse of the future.

Of course, the transfer portal could take all of these guys away from Ole Miss before next season, but the guys listed above along with others are likely the core of the Ole Miss offense in the coming years. I expect at least one of young bucks to find the end zone against the Bulldogs, if not multiple.

Parks Burcham

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 35, The Citadel 7

X-Factor player: Kewan Lacy

Lacy has been outstanding in the run along with his excellent pass-blocking. He is always the game changer whether it is charging down the field or helping protect.

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss will start slow and pick up in the second half of the game

From what I have seen lately, this team’s offense can take a little bit to get going. I think they will hit their stride middle of the third. I think once they get going, they will execute well and get the win.

Zach Moreth

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 52, The Citadel 10

X-Factor player: Princewill Umanmielen

My X-Factor is Princewill Umanmielen, and I am confident that the Ole Miss defense will record three or more sacks. This is a great opportunity for the team to get right before Florida. 

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss defense gets three or more sacks

Up next:

The week 11 matchup between Ole Miss and The Citadel kicks off Saturday, Nov. 8 at 12 p.m. CT on SEC Network +. Stay tuned in with The Rebel Walk for all your game coverage.