Week 5 Staff Predictions: Ole Miss vs. LSU

OXFORD, Miss. — Here we are in Week 5 of the college football season already and, as expected, the Ole Miss Rebels and the LSU Tigers will clash in yet another high-profile ranked matchup for a top spot in the SEC. 

The Tigers hold a 65-38 lead in the rivalry series with three matchups ending in a tie. Lane Kiffin is 2-3 against LSU since taking over the program in 2020, with both of those wins coming at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Brian Kelly is 2-1 against the Rebels in his time at LSU, with those wins coming in Death Valley.

With that, you could look at recent history and make a prediction, but we all know it is never that simple when these programs spot the ball. So, in the words of Kiffin — take the over and get your popcorn ready.

Here is The Rebel Walk staff giving their best shots at predicting what should be another thriller of a Magnolia Bowl between Ole Miss and LSU:

Adam Brown

Score prediction: Ole Miss 28, LSU 24

X-factor player: Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy

Ole Miss runs the ball in this SEC showdown of unbeaten teams on Saturday afternoon. Kewan Lacy and Trinidad Chambliss each run for over 100 yards on the ground.

Bold prediction: Which ever team can go up two possessions in this game will get the victory. The Rebels will probably get a key stop at some point during the contest to go 5-0 and 3-0 in the conference.

Billy Kuhl

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 45 LSU 42

X factor player: Luke Hasz

Hasz has yet to fully make his debut as he played just a few downs in last week’s win. He has also yet to have a pass target which I believe is planned to hide his skill set from LSU as he will be a big factor in this year’s Magnolia Bowl.

Bold Prediction: It will not be as defensive a game as people expect.

Recent Magnolia Bowl’s have been shootouts, including the last time these two met in Oxford, with both teams scoring over 50 points. Despite LSU’s vast defensive upgrades, this year’s game will still come down to one stop and a whole lot of scoring.

Daylan Flowers

Score prediction: Ole Miss 28, LSU 24

X factor: Dae’Quan Wright

With the defense that LSU has this year, it may be the best in the country. How does Ole Miss create a game plan to slow the Tigers’ defense down? Attack the middle of the field is how. Wright has already totaled more than 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns for Ole Miss, and the tempo game with Chambliss at the helm has relied on him heavily. 

Bold prediction: Ole Miss gets 2+ sacks on Nussmeier.

The Ole Miss defense has now gone two straight games without a sack. What’s a more bold statement than saying they will finally get back on the right track against a premiere o-line? With the veteran guys understanding the magnitude of this game, I expect Zxavian Harris or Suntarine Perkins to deliver a sack this weekend. Kam Franklin also wreaked havoc against Tulane, and I expect him to force LSU into some problems 

David Walker

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 38, LSU 17

It’s payback time for Ole Miss’ 2019 loss at home to Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers. The Rebels were 21.5-point underdogs and did in fact lose by three touchdowns. 

Since Lane Kiffin has arrived, it’s the Rebels who’ve been favored, albeit slightly, in four of the six games. Ole Miss is currently a 1.5-point favorite this Saturday over the third-ranked Tigers, and the now-famous “take the over” total sits around 55. 

The Rebels are first in the country with 17 yards per catch among teams with 75 or more completions, second overall in the Power 4 rankings, and third overall in FBS. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has a yards-per-completion average of 17.11, just a shade higher than Jaxson Dart’s average was last season. 

The Rebels ranked fourth in FBS behind the three academies in 2024. None of the academies broke 100 receptions for the season, however. The faces may change at Ole Miss, but the success rate continues regarding this particular metric.

X-Factor Player: Zxavian Harris

Look for Harris to have a big game against LSU’s O-line. I see him recording 2 1/2 sacks, 3 tackles for loss, and one forced fumble

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss will shut the Tigers’ running game down and put the onus on their quarterback to lay some Heisman moments on the table. Nussmeier currently ranks 33rd in QBR in FBS, and is 9th in the SEC.

Donna Sprabery

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 30, LSU 27

Saturday’s showdown between Ole Miss and LSU has all the makings of another SEC classic. With both teams carrying firepower and question marks, fans should expect a game that comes down to the wire.

LSU enters with injury concerns, most notably to running back Caden Durham (ankle) and defensive end Gabriel Reliford, who has been ruled out. Without a full-strength ground game and a key piece of their pass rush, the Tigers may lean more heavily on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier to keep the chains moving.

X-Factor Player: Trinidad Chambliss

Ole Miss has its own concerns, but the Rebels are relatively healthier and will again look to quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who flashed big-play ability last week. Surrounded by a deep receiving corps and supported by a defense that has stepped up in big moments, Chambliss has the tools to test LSU’s secondary.

Bold Prediction: Turnovers, penalties, and late-game execution decide the outcome

This rivalry has produced fireworks before—most recently in 2023 when Ole Miss topped LSU in a 55–49 shootout that went down as one of the most thrilling games in Vaught-Hemingway history. Saturday may not reach that scoreline, but the intensity should feel just as high.

Expect a back-and-forth battle where turnovers, penalties, and late-game execution decide the outcome. In the end, Ole Miss’ balanced attack and home-field edge may be just enough to hold off a determined LSU squad.

Evie Van Pelt

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 31, LSU 20

X-Factor Player: Trinidad Chambliss

It sounds cliche, but it all starts with Chambliss. He’s currently ranked No. 7 in the entire nation in Total QBR, the best metric for judging a quarterback’s performance, and there’s a reason why. Not only has he protected the ball and put up some very strong numbers — through the air and on the ground — Chambliss has made very good decisions and has been able to go through his progressions like a seasoned veteran. He’ll face his stiffest test yet as Lane Kiffin has called the LSU defense “elite” this season — and he’ll be up to the task, moving himself up the Heisman board after this game. 

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss will rack up over 500 yards of total offense against the Tigers and Dae’Quan Wright will have a day, recording 100 yards+ receiving.

I don’t think Ole Miss will have any trouble moving the ball on the LSU defense. While the Tigers have a strong unit, for sure, they have not faced any team yet with the firepower of Ole Miss on offense.  Look for the Rebels to score four touchdowns on an LSU defense that has been holding opponents to 10 points on average.

Jacob Quaglino

Score prediction: Ole Miss 17, LSU 14 — OT

X-Factor Player: Trinidad Chambliss

Choosing a single X-Factor player for this matchup was very, very difficult, as it seems pretty clear that if the Rebels are going to win this one, it will be a team effort rather than due to the efforts of a single player. But if there was a player for us to single out here, it will be the most important player on the field for the Rebels—the quarterback, Trinidad Chambliss.

The Division II transfer has been excellent in his two starts, averaging 330 yards per game and tossing four touchdowns, but those numbers came against the likes of Arkansas and Tulane, two teams with defenses nowhere near the level of LSU’s, and one that has yet to surrender more than 10 points in a game this season. We’ll see what Chambliss is really made of when he takes on a mighty LSU defense, and if he is the type of quarterback that can not only bring the Magnolia Bowl trophy back to Oxford, but lead the Rebels to their first college football playoff appearance.

Bold Prediction: Overtime game once again

Ok, perhaps this isn’t really that bold of a prediction, but in this highly unique and interesting matchup, and predicting anything is tough. The Rebels will have home field advantage which is notable because the home team has won the last five in a row in the series (and the Rebels have only three home losses since 2021, all by a combined 12 points, too) but Pete Golding’s defense is still young and discovering its identity, as some are anticipating a breakout performance from Garrett Nussmeier and the Tigers’ offense against a still-maturing Rebel defense.

On the other side of that coin, while the Tigers’ defense has played lights out so far, their defensive numbers have come against the likes of 1-3 Clemson, 1-3 Florida, Louisiana Tech and the FCS’s Southeastern Louisiana. This will certainly be a chance for Chambliss and Co. to prove themselves as one of the nation’s top offenses against a statistically excellent defense. Truly, this game could go either way, making it very tough to make a prediction here.

Kam Wicker

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 30, LSU 27

X-Factor Player: Kam Franklin

Of course I wanted to put Trinidad here, and anyone making a prediction should feel good doing so. However, that one is a given for me as I believe Chambliss will show up and have his moments as expected.

The big question about Ole Miss for me in this game is: Can you finally get to the quarterback? Ole Miss excelled in this last year, finishing third in the country with 52 sacks in 2024. In 2025, the Rebels are tied for the second fewest amount of sacks in the SEC and sitting in the bottom 15 of the country.

A lot of question will be answered about the Landshark defense this Saturday, and I think Kam Franklin — who leads the team in quarterback pressures with seven — will finally get home and get the party in the backfield started for Pete Golding‘s unit.

Bold Prediction: Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy combine for 200+ yards rushing

LSU has not been running the ball well this season, averaging just above 100 yards per game. The Rebels, on the other hand, have been averaging over 200 yards on the ground and I believe they will do much of the same in this one.

The Tigers are game-planning to face a dual-threat quarterback, and they will see a lot of that. But Chambliss makes this Ole Miss offense go when the read option play is run effectively and I believe that will give Lacy plenty of opportunities to break off some big runs as well against a tough LSU defense.

Zach Moreth

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 31, LSU 27

X-Factor Players: Kewan Lacy and Dae’Quan Wright

I believe Kewan Lacy will rush for over 100 yards and a touchdown with Dae’Quan Wright also finding his way in the end-zone.

Bold Prediction: Ole Miss will take on top-five LSU this weekend, and it feels awfully similar to last year against Georgia. It will be crucial for the defense to record a sack on Garrett Nussmeier as well.

Up next:

The week 5 matchup between Ole Miss and LSU kicks off Saturday, Sept. 27 at 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC. Stay tuned in with The Rebel Walk for all your game coverage.