ESPN FPI Backs Ole Miss in Every 2025 Matchup—Except One

OXFORD, Miss. — The buzz around Oxford this fall is noisy and filled with hype, yet again, and for good reason: ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has pegged Ole Miss as the favorite in every game on its 2025 schedule—except one.

That one? A road trip to Athens on October 18, where Lane Kiffin’s Rebels will face off against perennial SEC powerhouse Georgia, the only team currently favored over Ole Miss by FPI’s predictive model. It’s a trip many are already circling as the potential turning point of a season filled with College Football Playoff aspirations.

A Favorable Forecast

According to ESPN’s preseason FPI metrics, Ole Miss has a 30.7% chance to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, giving the fans in Oxford no shortage of hope with less than a week to go before Saturday’s season opener.

Much of that optimism comes from a manageable schedule structure and the return of key defensive stars—paired with new offensive and defensive talent acquired through the portal. The Rebels open the year in six days against Georgia State, and they’ll benefit from several pivotal matchups taking place at home, including ones against LSU, Florida, and South Carolina.

Spotlight Matchup: The Georgia Hurdle

When the Rebels travel to Athens in mid-October, they’ll face the only opponent this year that FPI favors over them. Georgia remains loaded on both sides of the ball, with a retooled, but experienced, defense and expected starting QB Gunner Stockton raring to go.

For Ole Miss, one of the biggest tests will be protecting new starting quarterback Austin Simmons, who takes over after the departure of Jaxson Dart. Simmons, a strong-armed lefty from Florida, will be challenged by a Georgia defense that thrives on collapsing the pocket and disguising coverages.

That matchup in the trenches—Rebels’ offensive line vs Georgia’s defensive front—may ultimately determine how far Ole Miss can climb in the SEC standings and national polls.

Key Games: More Than Just Georgia

While the Georgia game looms large, it’s far from the only high-stakes contest on the calendar. Here’s a closer look at several crucial matchups that could define the Rebels’ season:

October 25 at Oklahoma

Oklahoma, on the rise under Brent Venables, brings tempo and toughness—particularly on offense with QB John Mateer, who many think will contend for the Heisman, and a strong receiving corps. Mateer, a junior who transferred from Washington State, brings considerable dual-threat capability to the Sooners.

Coming just one week after the Georgia trip, this game could throw the Rebels’ season off track if they’re not focused.

Key matchup: Ole Miss’s defensive front, led by Suntarine Perkins, must contain the Sooners’ fast-paced attack and avoid fatigue-driven mistakes.

September 21 vs LSU

The Magnolia Bowl, as has been the case in recent years, remains a critical rivalry matchup. The Tigers enter with potential Heisman hopeful Garrett Nussmeier at QB and will likely field a talented defensive line and dynamic secondary.

Key matchup: The Rebels’ rushing attack versus LSU’s front seven. If Ole Miss can run the ball effectively, it may open up big-play opportunities downfield for Simmons and his new receiving targets, including transfers De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State) and Harrison Wallace III (Penn State).

November 15 vs Florida

Florida’s roster is young but talented, with second-year QB DJ Lagway offering a dual-threat challenge. While this game takes place in Oxford, it will be anything but a cakewalk—especially if postseason stakes are high.

Key matchup: The Rebels’ secondary will be tested against Florida’s deep-ball passing game. Limiting explosive plays will be crucial.

Personnel Outlook: Defense Anchored, Offense Reloaded

Defense should once again be the backbone of the team. Star linebacker/EDGE Suntarine Perkins, a projected first-round NFL pick, leads a unit that ranked among the national leaders in sacks and tackles for loss in 2024. He’s supported by disruptive linemen like Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska transfer), Da’Shawn Womack (LSU transfer), and returning DT Zxavian Harris.

On offense, Kiffin has reloaded. Simmons has impressed coaches with his arm strength and poise. If he develops on schedule, and the Rebels’ new-look receiver corps jells, this unit could match the explosiveness of Kiffin’s earlier Ole Miss teams.

A single loss at Georgia may not be fatal, but multiple missteps could knock the Rebels out of contention in a crowded playoff race. Conversely, running the table—or even going 11–1—could give Kiffin and Ole Miss a historic shot at a long-awaited breakthrough.

Here is the ESPN Matchup Predictor Results for Ole Miss in 2025

• Georgia State (August 30) – OM 94.4 percent
• at Kentucky (September 6) – OM 71 percent
• Arkansas (September 13) – OM 72.8 percent
• Tulane (September 20) – OM 81.8 percent
• LSU (September 27) – OM 57.7 percent
• Washington St. (October 11) – OM 96.2 percent
• at Georgia (October 18) – UGA 74 percent
• at Oklahoma (October 25) – OM 56.3 percent
• vs. South Carolina (November 1) – OM 57.4 percent
• vs. The Citadel (November 8) – OM 99 percent
• vs. Florida (November 15) – OM 58.8 percent
• at Mississippi St. (November 28) – OM 78.2 percent

Final Word

The numbers and the narrative seem to align in Oxford. ESPN’s FPI has made it clear: Ole Miss is a favorite in every game this fall—except a midseason showdown in Athens. If the Rebels can pull off what would be a massive upset on that trip, and/or avoid stumbles elsewhere, 2025 could be the year the people of Oxford have been waiting for!