Circa Sports Releases 2025 Projected SEC Teams’ Win Totals—Where does Ole Miss Land?

OXFORD, Miss. — According to the oddsmakers, 10-win regular seasons in the SEC are about to be harder to come by. Circa Sports has released its SEC win totals for 2025, and the Vegas sports book has Ole Miss projected at 8.5 total regular-season victories for the upcoming season.

SEC regular season over/under win totals via @CircaSports

Alabama 9½
Georgia 9½
Texas 9½
LSU 8½
Ole Miss 8½
Tennessee 8½
Auburn 8
Texas A&M 8
Florida 7½
Missouri 7½
South Carolina 7½
Oklahoma 7
Arkansas 5½
Vanderbilt 5½
Kentucky 4½
Miss State 3½

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) May 14, 2025

This time last year, Circa Sports had the Rebels with 9.5 expected regular-season wins. Head coach Lane Kiffin’s squad finished the regular season with nine wins and capped a 10-3 campaign with a victory over Duke in the Gator Bowl.

The top tier

For 2025, Circa has Alabama, Georgia and Texas atop the league with 9.5 wins each. Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee are all at 8.5 projected victories on the season.

If those numbers hold, the number of three-loss teams among the elite may become more commonplace. Three regular-season losses last season were the kiss of death, however, as only a three-loss Clemson made it into the CFP playoffs — and that was only because they won the ACC Championship. Had the Tigers not won that game, there would likely have been no three-loss teams in the playoffs.

Auburn, and A&M are expected to win 8 this coming season, while Florida, Missouri, and South Carolina sit at 7.5. Oklahoma is at 7.

The rest of the league is projected to have a losing record. Arkansas and Vanderbilt are anticipated to win 5.5 games, while Kentucky is at 4.5

Mississippi State brings up the rear as Circa Sports believes the Bulldogs will only win 3.5 games.

SEC projected totals down from 2024

These 2025 win totals are down from 2024 as last year Georgia and Texas were each sitting with 10.5 expected wins.

Across the board, 12 of the league’s 16 teams have lower projected win totals for 2025 than they did in 2024. The top six are all lower than last season. Only Auburn, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Vanderbilt have higher projected win totals than they did this time last season.

Here are the lists of 2025 and 2024 projected win totals:

2025 Projected Win Totals Among SEC Teams by Circa Sports

Alabama 9.5
Georgia 9.5
Texas 9.5
LSU 8.5
Ole Miss 8.5
Tennessee 8.5
Auburn 8
Texas A&M 8
Florida 7.5
Missouri 7.5
South Carolina 7.5
Oklahoma 7
Arkansas 5.5
Vanderbilt 5.5
Kentucky 4.5
Mississippi State 3.5

2024 SEC Projected Win Totals Among SEC Teams by Circa Sports

Georgia 10.5
Texas 10.5
Ole Miss 9.5
Alabama 9.5
Tennessee 9
Missouri 9
LSU 9
A&M 8.5
Oklahoma 7.5
Auburn 7.5
Kentucky 6.5
South Carolina 5.5
Florida 5
Arkansas 5
Mississippi State 4.5
Vanderbilt 3

What’s Next for Ole Miss

Ole Miss opens the season Saturday, August 30 in Oxford as the Rebels host Georgia State.