TJ’s Takeaways: Ole Miss Men’s Basketball Advances to Sweet 16 for First Time Since 2001, Defeats Iowa State 91-78

Editor’s Note: In our ongoing series, “TJ’s Takeaways,” we give readers an in-depth look at the latest Ole Miss men’s basketball game, as our TJ Oxley offers his thoughts, analysis, and insight. This series is here to help identify things that really stand out from the games, things you may not be able to find from a box score. And if you’re also looking for a recap of the game, don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. Check it out HERE.

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MILWAUKEE — No. 6 seed Ole Miss men’s basketball defeated No. 3 seed Iowa State, 91-78k Sunday night at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. The Rebels (24-11, 10-8 SEC) win over the Cyclones (25-10, 13-7 BIG 12) sends the Ole Miss dancing to the Sweet 16 for just the second time in program history. The 2000-01 team went (27-8, 11-5 SEC), making it to the third round of the big dance against Arizona in San Antonio, Texas.

Five players scored in double figures for the Rebels: Sean Pedulla (20), Jaemyn Brakefield (19), Malik Dia (18), Matthew Murrell (15) and Jaylen Murray (11). It marks the ninth game this season five players have scored 10 or more in a contest and 22nd time four players have hit double digits.

Additionally, the Rebels set a new NCAA tournament record for their highest field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, and free throw percentage in a game. Ole Miss shot 58.2 percent (32-for-55) from the floor, 57.9 percent (11-19) from deep, and 76.2 (16-21) percent from the charity stripe. The Rebels have now made 291 three-pointers on the season. They surpassed the 2009-10 team (286) for the most three-point field goals in a single season.

Those are the numbers, but let’s take a deeper dive into what happened Sunday.

Ole Miss Had to Match Iowa State’s Physicality

At one point, the Rebels led this contest by 26 points. For the common basketball goer, it looked as if Ole Miss was on cruise control for the duration of this contest. That is an extreme thought for March Madness, but the first five minutes of this game was a wake up call for Ole Miss.

Iowa State came out displaying their physicality and their size, showing how that could be an advantage for the Cyclones in this one. (See below for the difference in the heights of the starting lineups.) The Cyclones boast one of the top offenses in all of college basketball this season. That success comes from a few different things. One, they turn pressure defense into easy offense. Two, they run in transition, Three, Iowa State looks to get into the paint. Four, they are ruthless on the glass.

Ole Miss starters height:
6’1
5’11
6’4
6’6
6’9

Iowa State starters height:
6’5
6’1
6’9
6’8
6’11

— T.J. (@TJOxley1) March 24, 2025

In less than a 60-second span within the first three minutes of the game, Iowa State grabbed four offensive rebounds. Nine of the first fifteen Iowa State points came from the paint. The Cyclones totaled nine offensive rebounds in the first half.

However, midway through the first half, Ole Miss adapted. Chris Beard and his staff made some adjustments on the fly. The Rebels began to send everyone into the paint to rebound. If Iowa State did get the rebound, Ole Miss players made sure to go after it if the Iowa State player brought it down below his head. They swarmed the rebounder, making it tough for any kickouts or putbacks. Iowa State got four second-chance baskets in the first three minutes and then didn’t record another until there were just 5:00 minutes left in the first half.

Ole Miss also began to stunt on drives, if not full on help more with gap coverage. The Rebels looked to keep Iowa State out of the paint. The Ole Miss guards also did a better job of defending the post on switches. One possession sticks out. Iowa State had dwindled the shot clock down after trying to find a way to feed a pass to Brandon Chatfield, who was being fronted by a smaller Matthew Murrell who took away a lot of quality looks. There was additional help on the backside as well.

All in all, the moves proved fruitful as Ole Miss’ defense began to cause fits for a team that averaged 80.4 points per game.

Balanced Scoring Paved the Way

This Ole Miss team is led by guard Sean Pedulla, but it has much more balanced scoring than people realize. Six Ole Miss players average double figures, and for Ole Miss to make a run in March, the assumption is that other people have to step up. It’s no secret the Rebels had the statistically-best shooting percentage of the season. The Rebels have only shot >50% as a team six other times this season. In none of those other contests did Ole Miss shoot >50% from the perimeter as well. When you’re hot, you’re hot and Ole Miss got hot at the right time.

That being said, the Rebels made it tough for Iowa State to key in on one specific player defensively. Pedulla did start off with eight of Ole Miss’ first eleven points. After that, it freed up a lot for others as Malik Dia knocked down a couple of three pointers to get himself going early (including a step-back late in the shot clock). This was part of an 18-point, 8-rebound performance by Dia. Matthew Murrell was valuable as a perimeter catch-and-shoot threat that Iowa State had to account for as he knocked down three triples throughout the game. Murrell only had two other games this season with more than his three today. Jaylen Murray and Jaemyn Brakefield also scored in double figures as well.

This is all by design when this roster was constructed. Ole Miss brought in multiple primary scorers and, as a group, is one of the more experienced teams in the country when it comes to scoring. Early on this season, it was about finding that chemistry and everyone accepting new roles. Against the Cyclones, fans saw the benefit as the Rebels tallied an incredibly efficient shooting performance. When a team has multiple threats who all are hitting shots, defenses begin to make choices. Will they over-help on this player? Will they double this one in a certain scenario? Ole Miss benefitted by being able to attack with their versatility and that resulted in 91 points with five players scoring in double figures.

Ole Miss Turned Defense into Offense

Sound familiar? It should as turning defense into offense is one of the areas where Iowa State excels. It is also a point of emphasis for Ole Miss. The Cyclones rank in the top-10 in steals per game and steal percentage. Generating ball pressure has been key for Iowa State. The Rebels have an offense that is known for not turning the ball over. The Cyclones forced eight Ole Miss turnovers;  however, they only managed to turn that into seven points off of turnovers.

On the other side, Ole Miss built themselves a lead that in the second half forced Iowa State to really be aggressive in clawing their way back into the game. The Cyclones did turn the 26-point deficit into a bit of a thriller by cutting it down to eleven with minutes left. However, with Iowa State feeling that game pressure to try and push, it let the Rebels’ defense capitalize. In the second half, Iowa State committed nine turnovers, which led to twelve Ole Miss points. Some notable displays include Brakefield’s dunk in the final minute and a Pedulla transition around the 16-17 minute mark. Overall, Ole Miss scored 20 points off of turnovers, which certainly added the Ole Miss effort.

No. 6 Ole Miss Now Faces No. 2 Michigan State; What Does History Say About That?

The tournament makers and those with a basic understanding of how the brackets are created say that the higher-seeded team has the better chance of advancing. With recent Cinderella success, that begs the question of how have some higher-seeded teams fared in the second weekend of the NCAA tournament? Going back to the 2021 NCAA Tournament bracket, there have been 16 total two-seeded No. 2 teams. That’s four No. 2 seeds per year over four years. Of those sixteen, only five No. 2 seeds have made it to the Elite Eight in four years. That’s a 31% rate.

To dive further into this and how it relates to Ole Miss’ scenario, I took the same four brackets and looked at how many teams with a No. 6 seed or greater made it to the Elite Eight, while following the same relative bracket path Ole Miss did. Looking at teams that would be in the 6/11, 7/10, 2/15, or 3/14 matchups, the answer is pretty surprising. In 2021, two teams made the Elite Eight on this path (No. 6 seed USC, No. 11 seed UCLA). Two more did it in 2022 (No. 15 seed St. Peter’s, and No 10 Miami). Ole Miss fans should be familiar, with JuJu Murray being apart of this group. In 2024, Clemson (No. 6 seed) and NC State (No. 11 seed) made the Elite Eight. That means more teams of a No. 6-seed or higher made it to the Elite Eight over No. 2 seeds in the past four tournaments.

It’s also understandable that there are a higher number of teams, more chances to win, etc… The larger point, though, is that at this stage in the NCAA tournament, the number next to a team no longer carries as much weight. Every team that has made it to this stage is talented, has played good basketball, and is confident. This isn’t to say that an upset is guaranteed, but simply that these games now come down to preparation and execution (maybe a small amount of luck), compared to a gap in skill level. The point spread for this game was released at Michigan State favored -2.5, indicating that this game may be closer than one may think by just looking at seeding.

Next Up: 

The Rebels will head to Atlanta, Georgia as a member of the South Regional in the NCAA Tournament. No. 6-seed Ole Miss will take on No. 2-seed Michigan State on Friday, March 28. The Spartans defeated New Mexico, 71-63, Sunday in the Sweet 16. Tipoff time is set for 6:09 p.m. (CT) and the game will be broadcast on CBS.