Ole Miss vs. Georgia: Three Keys to a Rebel Victory over the Bulldogs

OXFORD, Miss. – No. 16 Ole Miss will play No. 3 Georgia for the second consecutive year — but with plenty more at stake for both sides this season in the new 12-team playoff era. If the Rebels were to lose their third game of the season, they would likely be eliminated from the playoffs.

But if the Bulldogs lose in Oxford this Saturday, it would be their second loss of the season, placing them in an elimination game against Tennessee the following week. With two teams fighting for their futures, there’s no question this game could down to the wire.

Understanding the importance of this game, let’s dive into what Ole Miss will need to do to emerge as the winner.

Keys to the Game

Pressure Carson Beck

The first key to the game starts on the defensive line for the Rebels. This Georgia offensive line does an incredible job of protecting quarterback Carson Beck from getting sacked, allowing a season-high of three versus Alabama. If Ole Miss can sack Beck 3-4 times, that implies that there will be pressure on Beck for the entire game, and when he gets pressured, he throws interceptions.

Speaking of pressure, Ole Miss currently is No. 2 in the nation in sacks, recording a total of 41 on the season for an average of 4.56 per game. The Rebels are No. 1 in the nation in tackles-for-loss, recording a whopping 75 on the season for a 10.4 per game average.

ONLY Duo with 30+ QB Pressures😈@OleMissFB pic.twitter.com/v5vW362u3a

— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 6, 2024

Beck leads the SEC in interceptions with 11 on the year, throwing the fifth-most in the country. If Ole Miss can force him to feel uncomfortable in the pocket and allow the secondary to make plays, it will severely limit the potent offense of Georgia.

Win third-downs

Moving into my second key of the game, I can say with confidence that this contest will strongly be determined by whichever team is more efficient on third downs. Lane Kiffin’s offense ranks 49th in college football on third down conversions, while Kirby Smart’s comes in at the 86th spot. Where it gets interesting is when you look at the defenses.

The Ole Miss defense is the ninth-best in the country on third downs with the Rebels’ opponents converting at a .294 percent clip, while Georgia’s is the sixth-best at .283. Whichever offense can extend their drives against these elite third-down defenses will give itself a chance to get into scoring position and eventually win the game.

Create explosive plays

My final key is one that seems obvious but is crucial. Lane Kiffin is known for his electric play calls, resulting in a number of iconic touchdowns from players like Elijah Moore, Jonathan Mingo, Dayton Wade, Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins, etc. Looking at last week when the Ole Miss offense had a historic day on the gridiron vs. Arkansas, Jaxson Dart completed three 60+ yard throws to Jordan Watkins as well as a 58-yard throw to Cayden Lee. When the Rebel offense is clicking on all cylinders, the unit is able to create matchups and scheme explosive, 50+ yard plays for the wide receivers.

Looking at the Georgia defense, they limited Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers to his longest pass of the day at 34 yards. Just last week, Florida’s longest passing play was a 43-yard catch. The only game where they’ve allowed a pass farther than 50 yards came against Alabama in a game where Georgia lost, and Mississippi State, who scored 31 points against Kirby Smart’s team. Though rainy conditions could make it difficult, the Ole Miss offense has to stretch the field against this physical Georgia defense.

The fit for Saturday ❄️#DripInTheSip | #HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/ZYH68UtmXr

— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 8, 2024

Game information

To recap, I am confident that if Ole Miss can disrupt Carson Beck in the pocket, win the third down ratio, and hit on their explosive plays, they have a legitimate shot to win this game.

The top-15 matchup will kickoff at 2:30 p.m. CT in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium and will be broadcast on ABC. As always, Hotty Toddy and Go, Rebs!