Handicappers vs. CFP Committee: A Massive Disparity in Rankings Finds Rebels No. 19 in AP Poll, but Top 10 according to Vegas Experts
OXFORD, Miss. — Each week of football season, sportswriters and coaches cast their ballots for who they think are the best teams in America. These polls are what college football fans traditionally live and die by, but there are massive disparities when it comes to the placement of the Ole Miss Rebels. Head coach Lane Kiffin’s team currently sits at No. 19 in the AP poll and will await the College Football Playoff Committee’s first rankings which are released November 5.
But the real experts in this game live in the desert — They are THE expert when it comes to making comparisons of one team to another. When these “experts” talk, people listen. They are the collective whose livelihoods depend on their own exhaustive research and astuteness. Simply put, they are the handicappers, the very best of all analysts — and they seem to have an entirely different opinion of this year’s Ole Miss team.
Their assessments of a single game, a player’s performance, the conference champions and national champions, and even the Heisman Trophy, are highly regarded and very much respected. Their work is how many fans stay informed.
Their calculations are used by the networks in promotional features time and time again, and for good reason. These evaluators are the best in the country. Wagering aside, this is why they’re of such great value. They establish our expectations.
Sportswriters, coaches, and announcers do not, would not, and could not be nearly as proficient as these number crunchers are, nor would they have the acumen to match the pros who do this for a living. Frankly, a large majority wouldn’t have a clue as to where to begin, nor would they want the pressure. It’s a profession in which a miniscule half a point is often the difference between winning and losing.
And the members of the CFP Committee are in the same boat. They’re not professional handicappers or even top analysts, although we all wish they were. Why? They’d be working from their own year-long appraisal system — America’s true rating system — when selecting and seeding our playoff teams.
And that would ultimately include the seven best at-large teams regardless of their records. Records are what the polls and committee members lean on but the records, in many cases, aren’t the best indicator of who the best teams actually are. It goes far deeper than that. If it didn’t, we’d still be awarding national champions based on who gets the most votes.
Other brand names like ESPN make their rankings known each week, all using different analytics. These are highly respected.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry shares their opinions, as well. My rule of thumb is to take them all with a grain of salt until I’m shown an actual betting ticket of any real value. Otherwise, it’s just conversation.
Not so with the power ratings. These assimilations aren’t as concerned with wins and losses as they are with the quality and talent of the players, both individually and collectively. The same can be said for the Futures Odds, with a lean towards who can actually win the national championship.
We should be curious about which analytics are being compiled and implemented by the CFP Committee to ensure we get the very best at-large teams and the most accurate seedings for all 12 entries. Power rankings are predicated on teams playing on a neutral field.
Should we trust any committee member who must first take a glance at the polls before forming an opinion? Does the popular vote then deliver these teams an automatic spot in the playoffs? The pros say it’s a bureaucratic sham — and who’s to argue?
The absolute legend in the college football handicapping business is Brad Powers. Brad has for 15 years been a Friday guest on the Bill King Show on WNSR in Nashville. Brad is an encyclopedic machine on the subject. He was gracious enough to share with us his Top 15 heading into Committee Week — and you’ll see the Rebels in a far higher position than they are in the AP Top 25.
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Texas
5. Alabama
6. Ole Miss
7. Penn State
8. Clemson
9. Notre Dame
10. Tennessee
11. Miami
12. LSU
13. Texas A&M
14. Iowa State
15. Indiana
Here’s a look at the AP and Coaches Polls. Ole Miss is ranked No. 19 in both heading into Week 10.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings
But when you look at the experts, like Brad Powers, Phil Steele, Sagarin, VSiN, and The Action Network, you see a completely different ranking, a much higher one, for Ole Miss.
Phil Steele’s latest power rankings have the Rebels ranked No. 6.
https://philsteele.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Vegas-Ratings_10_23.pdf
Sagarin has Ole Miss ranked No. 7
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
VSiN, another Vegas source of power rankings, has Ole Miss as its No. 7 team in the country.
https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-predictions/
The Action Network has the Rebels located in its No. 9 spot.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/college-football-betting-power-ratings-action-network
Regarding Futures Championship Odds, DraftKings has Ole Miss listed in its 11-spot.
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/ncaaf?category=futures&subcategory=winner
The ESPN Power Index, its FPI, has Ole Miss ranked No. 7 in the country.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
And just for grins, here are the current Heisman odds listed by Fanduel.
https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/ncaaf?tab=heisman
As you can see, the differences between the professionals and the others are quite dramatic. As such, each week from now until the playoffs are announced, we’ll compare the polls, ratings, futures, odds and ESPN’s FPI for a better picture of who should be where in the final playoff picture. Screenshots are advised as these links automatically update themselves.
Again, there is this vast chasm between the No. 19 spot where the AP poll has the Rebels currently placed, compared to the actual experts who have them ranked anywhere from No. 6 to No. 9. So that begs the questions of why this disparity exists and where the CFP Committee will rank the Rebs? We’ll find out the latter on November 5th!
Stay tuned and we’ll keep you apprised of the weekly numbers.
Hotty Toddy!
David Walker
David Walker was named Louisiana’s High School Player of the Year at just 16 years old and, at 17, became college football’s first quarterback to earn Freshman of the Year honors. He remains the NCAA’s youngest-ever starting quarterback, a distinction that has stood for decades.
Transitioning from a wide-open high school offense to Emory Bellard’s renowned wishbone triple option, Walker excelled as a dual-threat quarterback. He graduated as Texas A&M’s all-time winningest quarterback and served as a two-time team captain, helping to transform a program that had endured 15 losing seasons in the previous 16 years.
After his playing career, Walker coached and taught algebra at six Texas high schools before moving into private business. In 2011, he published his memoir, “I’ll Tell You When You’re Good,” a title inspired by the coaching philosophy of Shannon Suarez, the Sulphur High and Louisiana High School Hall of Fame coach who was a significant influence on Walker’s life and career.
Walker’s compelling storytelling in his autobiography reflects the breadth of his experiences in high school and college football, and it is an undeniable fact that he saw more action than any athlete in the history of the NCAA. Since 2013, he has contributed to The Rebel Walk, sharing his insights and expertise with readers.
