College Football Playoff Committee vs. Handicappers: Where will Ole Miss Land in the First CFP Rankings of 2024?
Editor’s Note: Each week, we will keep you up to date on what the Rebels’ rankings are in not only the College Football Playoff rankings, and the traditional AP and Coaches polls, but also in all the power rankings of the nation’s top handicappers.
OXFORD, Miss. — Tonight we find out where Ole Miss will be ranked in the first College Football Playoff Committee rankings of the 2024 season. (We predict they will land around No. 14.) There is a vast chasm between the No. 16 spot where the AP poll has the Rebels sitting this week and the No. 12 ranking in the Coaches Poll, as compared to the actual experts in Las Vegas who have Ole Miss ranked in the Top 6 (see below). So that begs the questions of why this disparity exists and where the CFP Committee will rank the Rebs? We’ll find out the latter tonight when the first rankings are released, beginning at 6:00 p.m. on ESPN.
(Click here for the complete schedule of CFP Rankings throughout the season.)
So each week of football season, sportswriters and coaches cast their ballots for who they think are the best teams in America, resulting in the AP and Coaches Polls. These polls are what college football fans traditionally live and die by — but the real experts, the handicappers, the very best of all analysts, seem to have an entirely different opinion of this year’s Ole Miss team than the AP and Coaches pollsters. These are the Vegas evaluators, the best in the country. Wagering aside, this is why they’re of such great value. They establish our expectations.
Sportswriters, coaches, and announcers could not be nearly as proficient as these number crunchers are, nor would they have the acumen to match the pros who do this for a living. And the members of the CFP Committee are in the same boat. They’re not professional handicappers or even top analysts, although we all wish they were. Why? They’d be working from their own year-long appraisal system — America’s true rating system — when selecting and seeding our playoff teams. And that would ultimately include the seven best at-large teams regardless of their records.
Records are what the polls and committee members lean on but the records, in many cases, aren’t the best indicator of who the best teams actually are. It goes far deeper than that. If it didn’t, we’d still be awarding national champions based on who gets the most votes.
But the power rankings aren’t as concerned with wins and losses as they are with the quality and talent of the players, both individually and collectively. The same can be said for the Futures Odds, with a lean towards who can actually win the national championship.
We should be curious about which analytics are being compiled and implemented by the CFP Committee to ensure we get the very best at-large teams and the most accurate seedings for all 12 entries. Power rankings are predicated on teams playing on a neutral field.
Should we trust any committee member who must first take a glance at the polls before forming an opinion? Does the popular vote then deliver these teams an automatic spot in the playoffs? The pros say it’s a bureaucratic sham — and who’s to argue?
Ole Miss in Top 6 according to Vegas Experts
But when you look at the experts, like Brad Powers, Sagarin, VSiN, and The Action Network, you see a completely different ranking, a much higher one, for Ole Miss.
Brad Powers has Ole Miss ranked No. 5.
Sagarin has Ole Miss ranked No. 6
VSiN, another Vegas source of power rankings, has Ole Miss as its No. 6 team in the country.
The Action Network has the Rebels located in its No. 5 spot.
Regarding Futures Championship Odds, DraftKings has Ole Miss listed in its 10-spot.
The ESPN Power Index, its FPI, has Ole Miss ranked No. 6 in the country.
And just for grins, here are the current Heisman odds listed by Fanduel.
As you can see, the differences between the professionals and the others are quite dramatic. As such, each week from now until the playoffs are announced, we’ll compare the polls, ratings, futures, odds and ESPN’s FPI for a better picture of who should be where in the final playoff picture. Screenshots are advised as these links automatically update themselves.
Stay tuned and we’ll keep you apprised of the weekly numbers.
Hotty Toddy!
(Feature image credit: Karis Chambliss, The Rebel Walk)
David Walker
David Walker was named Louisiana’s High School Player of the Year at just 16 years old and, at 17, became college football’s first quarterback to earn Freshman of the Year honors. He remains the NCAA’s youngest-ever starting quarterback, a distinction that has stood for decades.
Transitioning from a wide-open high school offense to Emory Bellard’s renowned wishbone triple option, Walker excelled as a dual-threat quarterback. He graduated as Texas A&M’s all-time winningest quarterback and served as a two-time team captain, helping to transform a program that had endured 15 losing seasons in the previous 16 years.
After his playing career, Walker coached and taught algebra at six Texas high schools before moving into private business. In 2011, he published his memoir, “I’ll Tell You When You’re Good,” a title inspired by the coaching philosophy of Shannon Suarez, the Sulphur High and Louisiana High School Hall of Fame coach who was a significant influence on Walker’s life and career.
Walker’s compelling storytelling in his autobiography reflects the breadth of his experiences in high school and college football, and it is an undeniable fact that he saw more action than any athlete in the history of the NCAA. Since 2013, he has contributed to The Rebel Walk, sharing his insights and expertise with readers.
