Examining the Rebels’ Path to the College Football Playoffs: A Historical Look at Two and Three-Loss Teams’ Chances

OXFORD, Miss. — After Ole Miss lost to LSU last weekend, the Rebels dropped to 5-2 on the season, leaving many to wonder if they still have a path to the college football playoffs should they manage to win out. The answer to that, if history is any indicator, would be a resounding, ‘yes.’

So just how many teams with two losses might make it into the newly-expanded 12-team playoffs? Will any teams make it in with three losses? I’ve taken a deep dive into the topic and found answers, ones that should make Rebel fans feel a little better. As head coach Lane Kiffin told his team, “there’s a lot left to play for.”

Over the past 10 years, the College Football Playoff Committee has had tremendous input into the Final Four, the bowl matchups, and of course, the final rankings. Conversely, the Associated Press and Coaches Polls have had influence on the committee’s choices of at-large bids, overall rankings, and the seedings going into the playoffs. In effect, the polls set the stage for the postseason and the committee draws the curtain.

And since this year’s format will include presumably eleven Power 4 programs and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion (a team that may not even be listed in the original Top 12 when playoff decisions are made), it’s infinitely better for the P4 teams to stay off that 12-spot bubble.

Backs against the wall

Without question, some outstanding teams across the country already have their backs against the wall. A handful of former and current Top 5 teams have already been whacked and we’re only halfway through the regular season.

In Week 6 alone we saw Tennessee and Alabama join Notre Dame, Georgia and Ole Miss as elite Top 5 teams that have felt the sting of defeat — all in stunning upsets except for Georgia’s loss to Bama. Week 7 delivered The Ohio State Buckeyes their first L.

Historical perspective: The numbers game

So, just how big is the room for error in this new frontier? For programs and fan bases who are now on the edge of their seats inside their hype bus, a bit of historical perspective is in order.

The committee will be ranking the teams for further battle after the conference championship games are played and before the start of bowl season. These rankings determine the participants and the seedings for the playoffs.

The single most important factor for making the Top 12 in the past has been the number of losses that are on your team’s ledger. WHO beat you hasn’t factored in to a great extent — it’s strictly a numbers game as simple as 1, 2, 3 — with a slight nudge here and there from the dreaded intangibles.

This year, five conference champions are automatically eligible for the playoffs regardless of their records. Everyone else sweats. Historically, the cold, hard fact is that the Loss Column is the Great Determinator. In 25 years, there have been few exceptions.

So how have multiple-loss teams fared in the pre-bowl rankings if the playoffs had been in effect?

We have ten years of Committee rankings available.

These rankings tell us that two-loss Power 4 programs will be sorted by their perceived Strength of Power and then, based on the number of slots available, get assigned a spot in the playoffs. Two-loss teams consistently outrank three-loss teams in the pecking order but there have been rare exceptions in this regard.

Five two-loss teams per year make the CFP Top 25 on average. 83% of them make the Top 12. Excluding Covid 2020, 38 Power-5 teams have made it into the Top 12 and eight have not. That’s almost a 5-to-1 ratio, which is exciting news!

Interestingly, the only two-loss SEC team that has NOT made the committee’s Top 12 was No. 13 Alabama in 2019. Adding major salt to the wound is that three-loss Auburn was placed a slot ahead of the Tide in the coveted 12-spot. Alabama would have the last laugh that year, however, as Auburn would’ve been bumped by No.17 G5 champ Memphis.

The Big 12’s Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, the Big Ten’s Minnesota and Northwestern, independent Notre Dame and the Pac-12’s Washington State have also missed the cut as two-loss teams over the past decade.

2019 saw a committee-record SIX two-loss teams listed in its Top 12, a number matched again in 2022.

The fewest two-loss teams granted Top 12 status is two, with this record set in 2014. Amazingly, there was not another two-loss team in that entire Top 25.

An average of four to five two-loss teams have made the Top 12 since 2014, with 2020 excluded for this study because of the disparity in games played.

Strangely in 2018, No. 13 two-loss Washington State would’ve watched as four three-loss teams, including arch-rival Washington, got the nods for the “playoffs.” Mike Leach’s team had risen to No. 7 before losing to the 16th-ranked Huskies in the Apple Cup. Timing matters.

In 2016, two-loss West Virginia was ranked No. 16 behind SIX three-loss teams and even a four-loss team — No. 14 Auburn. West Virginia had twice during the season climbed to No. 10 in the AP Poll and each time had been defeated decisively. In the second loss, the Mountaineers were beaten when favored, which is never a good thing. Expectations matter. Losing games that you’re favored to win is a recipe for disaster.

In 2023, there were six current SEC teams and five current Big Ten teams ranked in the Committee’s Top 12, along with the ACC’s Florida State.

It’s no stretch to believe we’ll see a five-team representation from either the SEC or the Big Ten in this year’s playoff setup, with the other conference getting four teams in. The other three spots will be filled by the ACC and Big 12 champions, plus the highest-ranked G5 team.

Going into Week 8

Heading into Week 8, the SEC has five teams in the Top 11 (No. 1 Texas, No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Alabama, No. 8 LSU, and No. 11 Tennessee), the Big Ten has three (No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Penn State, and No. 4 Ohio State), the ACC has two (No. 6 Miami, No. 10 Clemson), and the Big 12 has one (No. 9 Iowa State). Boise State is currently the G5 rep who’d boot current-No. 12 Notre Dame out of the playoffs. None of these teams has two losses — but that will change this weekend.

Overall, the odds look very good for the two-loss Power teams based on the committee’s past work, particularly for those teams that finish strong. And even better for the Rebels, 90% (9 of 10) of the SEC teams with two losses have been ranked in the Committee’s Top 12.

Three-loss teams’ potential to make playoffs

The real questions will be concerning which THREE-loss teams, if any, can gravitate into the mix. Let’s take another look back.

In 2014, eleven of the committee’s Top 25 teams had three losses but only three of them would have made the Top 12 cut. No. 20 Boise State would have knocked No. 12 Georgia Tech out of the CFP, leaving No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 10 Arizona, and No. 11 Kansas State at 1-2-3 in the eleven-horse 3-loss field.

In 2015, there was the other extreme. Ole Miss was top dog among eight three-loss Top 25 teams but was ranked in the dreaded 12-spot. Unfortunately for them, the Rebels would have been brought down from behind by the Houston Cougars of the G5 American. This replacement left NO three-loss teams in the 2015 playoff field — for many a scary thought.

2017 was an anomaly as the only three-loss team was an Auburn team that was ranked No. 7 — ahead of five two-loss teams. Auburn’s third loss came in the SEC championship game against Georgia, so there was some pull there.

2019 had only one three-loss team after No. 12 Auburn was replaced by Memphis of the AAC. Additionally, there was a three-loss Utah team in 2021 and a couple of three’s that would’ve made it in 2022.

In 2023 there was not a single three-loss team that would have made the playoffs, although spots 13 through 18 were all held by three-loss teams. Close, but no cigars.

In the BC years (Before Committee), the AP Polls that were released before the bowl season obviously get us pretty darned close to which teams would have been invited to the college football playoffs.

In the 15 seasons from 1999 through 2013, three-loss teams would NOT have received a bid in five of those seasons. AGAIN, losses matter.

In six of these years, only one three-loss team would have gotten a shot — but not so fast. There’s that pesky caveat to consider.

One of them was the 2001 LSU team that picked up its third loss against Tennessee in the SEC championship game. LSU was sitting on the 12-spot just ahead of two-loss Washington State, but still would’ve been bumped by No. 25 Toledo, the 2001 MAC champion.

The same situation had occurred in 2000 with a different set of circumstances. At No. 11 was three-loss Kansas State and at No. 12 was two-loss Texas. The Longhorns would have been bumped by MWC champ Colorado State, ranked 23rd at the time. This is one of the few occasions where a three-loss team supplanted a two-loss team.

1999 and 2002 saw two three-loss teams make the AP Top 12 rankings but one, 1999 Minnesota, would’ve been bumped by No. 16 Southern Mississippi, and another, 2002 Michigan, would’ve been replaced by No. 18 Boise State. Left out in the cold altogether in 1999 would’ve been a 2-loss Mississippi State team ranked 15th.

In 2006, Arkansas lost its third game to Florida in the SEC Championship game and was ranked in the 12-spot ahead of several two-loss Power 5 teams — West Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. Was this a conference call?

2003 included three three-loss teams in the Top 12 before No. 12 Purdue would’ve been shown the door by No. 14 Miami of Ohio.

The real outlier was in 2008 when FOUR G5 teams were ranked in the pre-bowl-season Top 12. Fortunately for the committee, all but Boise State have since moved to Power conferences, they being Utah, Texas Christian and Cincinnati.

Can you imagine another 2011 occurring where a 10-3 Michigan State gets the 12-spot over a  10-2 Michigan at No.13? Are you kidding me? Or how about Auburn hitting the 12-spot ahead of No. 13 Alabama as in 2019? The possibilities are unfathomable.

A four-loss team has never appeared in the Top 12’s over the past 25 years, but with conference expansion, it’s not yet a definitive certainty. For now, a four-loss season only guarantees you a bowl game berth.

How many teams from individual conferences have gotten in? That number appears to be four, historically, but again, with 16 and 18-team conferences now, that number could obviously rise.

The two-to-three-loss maximum and the mega-conferences that are now in place make this consideration almost obsolete. In the final analysis, it doesn’t appear that conference affiliations are much of a determining factor.

The teams across the country that finish with two or less losses will be the committee’s highest priority. There’s not a Power 4 team in America with two losses that won’t have a claim to the playoffs.

After factoring in the extremely dangerous G5 lottery winner that in Week 8 is not yet ranked in the AP Top 12, the three-loss teams will then be assessed, if needed. Attrition will be a factor, as it always is, and so will pressure.

From this vantage point, a two-loss Ole Miss team would definitely be a CFP participant — that would mean they beat Georgia. Ole Miss has trailed for only two minutes and 25 seconds through the Rebels’ first seven games.

But lose a third time and you’re leaving yourself open to interpretation. That’s tricky. You’ll then be compared with the other stragglers who are in that 3-loss pool. No one can predict how that bubble turns out, or, based on previous years, whether that decision even has to be made.

The final week of the regular season is Rivalry Week, after which the conference championships are determined. Rivalry Week traditionally brings its own share of carnage.

Back to the Present

Back to the present, and there’s no doubt Week 8 will be vicious. Zero-loss Miami at two-loss Louisville, No. 12 one-loss Notre Dame at two-loss Georgia Tech, one-loss Alabama (-2.5) at one-loss Tennessee, one-loss LSU at two-loss Arkansas, one-loss Kansas State at three-loss West Virginia, and most importantly, one-loss Georgia at zero-loss Texas (-3.5). The two-loss class could grow significantly.

All eyes should be more on the losses than the rankings. Nationwide there are currently 26 teams that have fewer than two losses and another 16 that have two.

It’s a very long line but remember, we’re halfway through the season and 11 of the preseason AP Top 25 teams already have two or more losses. More are teetering. We’ll see many more mechanical breakdowns on this road before we reach our destination.

For the Rebels…

For the Rebels, it’s important to channel some Muhammad Ali and knock some folks out EVERY chance they get. Put ‘em away. That’s the job. The advantage of having a Top 5 perch was certainly memorable, but it is now irrelevant. The trick will be to remain THE top-ranked two-loss team and/or move into the SEC’s Top 5. This will require some impressive winning.

A third loss is mathematically survivable, but then Ole Miss will need help and you just can’t trust the committee. The surest way in is to win out, and that’s where the Rebels really prove their worth.

I once quarterbacked a team that started 0-2 in conference play before finishing 10-2 and No. 7 in the country. It was the greatest achievement of my college career. Only one other team has done that at A&M; Johnny Manziel’s 2012 team. This Ole Miss team has the kind of talent and leadership to get it done.