Previews and Predictions: No. 5 Ole Miss Hosts Kentucky in SEC Opener
OXFORD, Miss. — It’s finally here — the Rebels’ first SEC game of 2024. After running the table and going 4-0 in non-conference action, it’s time to learn a little more about this year’s Ole Miss team.
We do know they’ve got plenty of firepower. Offensively, they’re ranked as follows as a team: No. 1 in nation in Total Offense, No. 1 in nation in Scoring Offense, No. 1 in nation in Passing Offense and No. 12 in nation in Rushing Offense.
Quarterback Jaxson Dart has amassed 1,554 passing yards through four games, the most passing yards through four games of any SEC QB in the last 20 years.
Dart is completing 80% of his passes and is the best deep thrower in the nation. On 20+ yard throws, he has a 97.1 passing grade (1st in nation); has completed 15 such passes (1st); has tallied 623 passing yards on those 20+ yard throws (1st) and has 9 TDs (1st).
Tre Harris is the highest-graded Power 4 wide receiver at 91.8, according to PFF.
Defensively, the Rebels are also loaded and stand at the top in several key categories. They are No. 1 in nation in Scoring Defense, No. 1 in nation in Rushing Defense, and No. 3 in nation in Tackles for Loss
The defensive line has been prolific as they are the nation’s team leaders in QB pressures with 109 thus far this season.
Chris “Pooh” Paul is the highest-graded defensive player in the SEC at 91.44 per PFF. And William Echoles was the highest-graded true freshman defensive tackle in Week 4 (78.1), according to PFF.
All of these stats are great, but they have come against admittedly weaker foes.
“Statistically, teams we have played have struggled this year. That is why I am not making big statements about where we are ranked or how good we are on offense or defense. I said we have a chance to be really elite and really good, but we are going to have to prove that against bigger and better players.”
Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin
Kiffin even said in this week’s SEC Coaches Teleconference that he meant no disrespect, but his team has had more challenge facing itself than it has in the preseason.
“I’m a realist. I don’t think our opponents have really prepared for the SEC play. My hope is that our practice and our fall camp have prepared us because we play against very good players on both sides of the ball,” Kiffin said. “Defensively we play against really big linemen, same the other way around. The schedule is what it is. I hope our practice has (prepared us) because our practice is similar to what we will face,” he added.
But they will have a challenge Saturday as this is a Kentucky team that lost to Georgia by just one point, 13-12, two weeks ago. Kentucky ranks 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (74.75) and seventh in run defense success rate (52.5 percent).
“These guys took Georgia down to the wire and ran for over 200 yards. These guys are really good and when they’re motivated to play, they play really good,” Kiffin said.
“They have really good length on defense, great size and length, and so they’re able to play with Georgia. When you don’t have size and length on defense, you struggle against Georgia or Alabama. They very much look like an NFL defense from a structure and from a size standpoint in coverages and techniques….It’s why a lot of people struggle against them and games seem more like NFL games. It’s hard to make yards. It’s hard to run the ball.”
Lane Kiffin on Kentucky
So what will happen in Saturday’s game?
The Rebel Walk has put together a group of panelists who are weekly sharing their predictions for the upcoming game. Our panel brings a variety of backgrounds and perspectives that showcase many different point of views
Game Details
Kickoff: Saturday, Sep. 28 at 11:00 a.m. CT
TV: ABC
Live Stream: ESPN App/SEC Network+
Radio: Ole Miss Radio Network
Live Audio: OleMissSports.com/watch
Live Stats: Click Here
Digital Program: Click Here
Our Leaderboard:
Tyler Komis 13 (+4)
Kam Wicker 12 (+6)
Grayson Weir 10 (+1)
Adam Brown 10 (+1)
Zach Moreth 10 (+4)
TJ Oxley 10 (+1)
Caleb 4 (+1)
If you would like to read back and see what all each panel predicted ahead of last week’s 40-6 win over Georgia Southern, check it out HERE.
Panel Predictions
Scoring: Each panel member can earn a total of six points per week.
- One point will be awarded for correctly picking the winning team outright.
- Two points will be awarded if the predicted score is within 7.5 points total. There is a caveat to this. For example, if a panel member says that a team wins the game 21-0 and that team loses 0-21, the total score is technically within 7.5 points. However, points will only be awarded if the score is close to the prediction (i.e. – a score of 24-3 has a total of 27 and is within 7.5 points of 21).
- Lastly, a panel member will be awarded three points if his prediction is correct.
With that being said let’s get to the predictions for Ole Miss home game against Kentucky.
Grayson Weir, Bro Bible
Score: Ole Miss 35 — Kentucky 17
Prediction: Juice Wells scores two touchdowns.
This entire game comes down to each team’s ability to stop the run. Although Ole Miss’ offensive line had its way with every defensive front thus far, Kentucky’s D-Line is going to be the first real test.
If Henry Parrish Jr. can continue to hit the hole hard and average north of five yards per carry, it will open up the passing game for Jaxson Dart. The Wildcats knocked Carson Beck off of his game but they won’t have an answer for the Rebels’ weapons. Juice Wells is going to get loose for a pair of scores in his big breakout game while the defense keys on Tre Harris.
On the flip side, Kentucky’s offense is serviceable. Ole Miss’ defensive line is banged up, which will allow the visitors to break off a few big plays. They are going to score once in each half. A field goal off of a stupid turnover or unfortunate defensive lapse will close the gap to 18 instead of 21.
Tyler Komis – Inside the Rebels
Score: Ole Miss 38 — Kentucky 15
Prediction: Ole Miss has two 100-yard receivers in the game.
Kentucky’s strength comes within their attack on the ground and their defensive front. Ole Miss matches up well in both areas, maybe even more so in the run stop department. Ole Miss’ defensive front could make it a nightmare like afternoon for Vandagriff, who’s been sacked 10 times over the last three games. Give me the Rebels to cover.
Kam Wicker – The Rebel Walk
Score: OM 34 – UK 20
Prediction: The Rebels rush for 150+ yards and 2 rushing TDs
Two of the top statistical defenses in the SEC will cause a slow start to this matchup. With Ole Miss set on having something to prove, I expect the Rebel offense to eventually pull away from a struggling Kentucky offense.
Zach Moreth – The Rebel Walk
Score: Ole Miss 31 — Kentucky 17
Prediction: Caden Prieskorn will score a touchdown.
Ole Miss will defeat Kentucky 31-17 in a game that will never actually feel close. I predict the Rebs will come out and score on their script drive and maintain a sense of comfort throughout the game. The Ole Miss offensive line will play a major role in stopping several future NFL players along the Kentucky defensive front.
Adam Brown – The Rebel Walk
Score: Ole Miss 32 — Kentucky 14
Prediction: I look for Jaxson Dart to have a strong game and lead the offense with 285 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Ole Miss comes into their first conference game of the season on Saturday on homecoming at Vaught-Hemingway. Henry Parrish and the Ole Miss ground attack will go up against a defense that likes to stop the run and eye the quarterback. The Rebels run for 100 yards.
Kentucky keeps it close for three quarters and Jarred Ivey and JJ Pegues each record two solo sacks.
TJ Oxley – The Rebel Walk
Score: Ole Miss 42 — Kentucky 17
Prediction: Ole Miss wins and the defense has 5 different players record a 0.5 sack or more.
The Rebels have a new level of physicality and aggression in the front seven. In two SEC games, UK has pass blocking grades of 37.0 and 37.9. Those are eye popping numbers and expect the P4 team with the most pressures to make life tough for Brock Vandagriff.
Caleb Salers – Supertalk Mississippi
Score: Ole Miss 34 — Kentucky 14
Big prediction: Caden Prieskorn is finally unleashed. Prieskorn will end the early contest with more than 100 receiving yards and a touchdown as the defense continues to prove solid, holding Kentucky to under 250 total yards of offense.
The Rebels get off to a relatively slow start against the toughest defense Lane Kiffin’s squad has yet to face off against this season. However, midway through the first half, Jaxson Dart and company, particularly tight end Caden Prieskorn, will get the ball rolling and take a double-digit lead into halftime.
TJ Oxley
TJ Oxley is the Vice President of Operations and the Director of Community Relations for The Rebel Walk. He is also the Director of Basketball Content and Senior Basketball Writer. He has over five years of experience providing in-depth analysis of college basketball through multiple platforms. A former MBA graduate of Ole Miss, TJ started with The Rebel Walk in 2019.
