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Could Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart win the Heisman? Here’s the roadmap for it to happen

Posted by | Aug 30, 2024 |

Could Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart win the Heisman? Here’s the roadmap for it to happen

OXFORD, Miss. — The 2024-2025 college football season is finally upon us, and the expectations for the Ole Miss Rebels are at the highest levels in the modern college football era. Fans no longer have much time to wait to see this team, as kickoff against Furman is set for Saturday at 6:00 p.m.

In the offseason, Ole Miss retained some key weapons on the offensive side of the ball, and with the help of the No. 1 transfer portal class in the nation, the Rebels look to have one of the best offenses in all of college football.

With this being said, it’s no surprise Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart is one of the top five candidates for the Heisman Trophy. With odds at +1400 on three major betting sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM), Dart is listed among the top five that includes: Dillon Gabriel (the favorite), Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers, Dart and Jalen Milroe.

The current odds at DraftKings to win the championship have Ole Miss and Alabama tied for fifth in its rankings, and coincidentally, matches both of these teams’ quarterbacks, Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe, at No. 4 in the Heisman race.

The four teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss and Alabama boast three of the quarterbacks who are ranked ahead of Dart and Milroe — Gabriel of Oregon, Beck at Georgia, and Ewers at Texas.

After looking a bit deeper into college football’s most prestigious award and the signal callers who have won the Heisman trophy, one question comes to mind. What does Jaxson Dart have to do to take home the Heisman?

Out of the past eight Heisman winners, seven have been quarterbacks. Looking at each of their histories, there are three distinct similarities between each of those winners and the Ole Miss senior.

No. 1 – The Heisman winner has to win games

Let’s keep it simple to start. The Heisman winner has to win games. Only quarterbacks Jayden Daniels (LSU – 2023) and Lamar Jackson (Louisville – 2016) experienced a three-loss regular season in recent history. To take it one step further, every other quarterback who won the award from 2016 on, has won 11 regular-season games. While, yes, it has been proven possible to win the award without, the Heisman has favored winning teams in the past.

This can be a plus for Ole Miss whose season win total line is set at 9.5 for the season. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, this has the potential to be one of the Rebels’ most favorable schedules in history. It’s likely we could see Ole Miss favored in ten or eleven games this season, making Dart an enticing candidate.

There’s also what’s known as the “Heisman Moment,” where a player sets himself apart from others and showcases something spectacular in his game. With a full SEC slate and major games against LSU on the road and UGA at home, Dart definitely has a chance to produce his own highlight performance.

No. 2 – The Heisman Winner needs elite weapons surrounding him

In the past, there have been examples of Heisman-winning quarterbacks who’ve had success without the most talent to assist them. This can create some of the more memorable season performances. Cam Newton comes to mind. Other players to have Heisman winning seasons without multiple elite pass catchers include Sam Bradford and Marcus Mariota. For the sake of this article, please take ‘elite weapons’ as being superbly talented players with a historical statistical success or potential NFL pedigree.

Things have switched up in recent years as offenses have continued to flourish in recent memory. With the explosive offenses in college football, let’s take a look at the correlation of who some of those seven quarterbacks had as pass catchers.

  • This past season Jayden Daniels had two first round receivers in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
  • Caleb Williams (2022 – USC) threw to first round pick Jordan Addison, day three pick Tahj Washington and NFL UDFA Brenden Rice.
  • In 2021, Bryce Young threw to a pair of big time playmakers in Jameson Williams and John Metchie.
  • Joe Burrow (2019 – LSU) threw to both Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.
  • At Oklahoma, Kyler Murray (2018 – Oklahoma) had both CeeDee Lamb and Marquise Brown.
  • A year before that Baker Mayfield had both Lamb and Brown along with Mark Andrews.

It is early and stars are made under the lights, so things can change and breakout players can earn their chance. But with the current odds being based on current projections and previous statistics, Dart has one of the better receiving corps around him. Ole Miss received a big win with the return of WR Tre Harris, WR Jordan Watkins and TE Caden Prieskorn. Last year that trio caught over 2100 yards and 15 total touchdowns.

That sort of production, alone, would warrant an above average group but Ole Miss didn’t stop there. The Rebels added a top-three transfer wide receiver in Antwane “Juice” Wells, who had a 1,250-yard season at James Madison and a 925-plus-yard season at South Carolina.

With the group surrounding him, Dart has plenty of options to whom to spread out the ball. With these are some coverage mismatches and players who demand attention no matter where they are on the field.

No. 3 – The Heisman Winner has to Produce Personally

This is where you can carve a path based on benchmarks set in the past. For example, almost every single one of the above Heisman-winning QBs threw for 40+ passing touchdowns. There were varying levels to this, as Joe Burrow threw for 60 the year he won the Heisman. The one QB who didn’t hit this mark was Lamar Jackson who accounted for 30 passing touchdowns — but also notched a whopping 21 rushing TDs.

It’s important to note that two of the betting favorites for the award — Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers — also haven’t thrown for 25+ passing touchdowns in a season to date.

So far, Dart has a high of 23 passing touchdowns in a season. One could point to the Ole Miss offense and the playcalling of Charlie Weis, Jr. and Lane Kiffin for where this number is. Another argument could be made for the personnel Ole Miss had within the RB room and Coach Kiffin’s emphasis on the ground game. While it’s yet to be seen this season, there have been reports of more five-out personnel sets.

What’s not in question is Dart has the ability and the players around him to have yet another monster season. In addition to all the weapons listed above, Dart also has wide receivers Cayden Lee and Ayden Williams on the roster. Look for those two to have super sophomore seasons.

Last season, Jaxson finished 233-of-358 (65.1 percent) for 3,364 yards, the above-mentioned 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions (tied for the fewest in single-season Ole Miss history with at least 200 attempts). He was highly effective on the ground, notching 389 yards and eight scores on 119 total carries. He finished as PFF’s ninth-best rated passer in 2023 with an 88.7 grade, third-best in the SEC.

Conclusion

The Heisman Trophy winner has to win games: This “should” be a check. 
The Heisman Trophy winner needs elite weapons surrounding him: Check. 
The Heisman Trophy winner has to produce personally: Check. 

Overall, based on what we know about who has won college football’s most prestigious award and where the current odds sit, it’s not going out on a limb to say Jaxson Dart has strong odds to remain in the Heisman race to the end.

Since there is no other publication available besides the Vegas oddsmakers who are official windows into the possible results, we’ll continue to go to the Vegas rankings regularly, so stay tuned as we keep you updated on Dart’s odds.

Note: This article shows multiple Heisman odds and lists multiple gambling sites. The Rebel Walk wishes to remind everyone that if you are in an area to gamble, please gamble responsibly. If gambling is a problem for you, please call 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).
TJ Oxley

TJ Oxley is the Vice President of Operations and the Director of Community Relations for The Rebel Walk. He is also the Director of Basketball Content and Senior Basketball Writer. He has over five years of experience providing in-depth analysis of college basketball through multiple platforms. A former MBA graduate of Ole Miss, TJ started with The Rebel Walk in 2019.

About The Author

TJ Oxley

TJ Oxley is the Vice President of Operations and the Director of Community Relations for The Rebel Walk. He is also the Director of Basketball Content and Senior Basketball Writer. He has over five years of experience providing in-depth analysis of college basketball through multiple platforms. A former MBA graduate of Ole Miss, TJ started with The Rebel Walk in 2019.

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