Preview: Ole Miss Men’s Basketball travels to Starkville to play State; A Look at the Rebels’ Tournament Chances

OXFORD, Miss. — With only six games left in the Ole Miss men’s basketball season, the Rebels control their own destiny if they want to make the NCAA Tournament come March. With the win over the Missouri Tigers last Saturday, the Rebels (19-6, 6-6 SEC) begin their most important stretch of the 2023-24 season tonight as they travel to Starkville to take on the rival Mississippi St. Bulldogs (17-8, 6-6 SEC). 

Tonight’s game is the second of two basketball Egg Bowls this season. Ole Miss came away victorious in their first meeting this season in Oxford on January 30th, where the Rebs won 86-82. In that game, Chris Beard’s squad was led by Matthew Murrell and Jaylen “JuJu” Murray who both had 20-point outings in the first contest. TJ Caldwell also added a career high of 18 points at the time as well. The Rebels played one of their best offensive games of the season against State, and scored over 85 points for the 5th time all season. 

Since losing to Ole Miss in Oxford, Mississippi St. has played four games and compiled a record of 3-1. The Bulldogs played home games against Georgia and Arkansas as well as road games at Alabama and Missouri. Head coach Chris Jans’ team looked good in all of those matchups except for their road loss to the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa where they were blown out 99-67. 

For a full breakdown of the Mississippi St. Bulldogs, go check out our “Scouting the Opposition” Mississippi St. Bulldogs Edition. In this article, we are going to discuss what the Bulldogs’ have been up to recently as well as Ole Miss’ tournament chances. 

What have the Bulldogs been up to?

Mississippi St. is led by their star freshman guard Josh Hubbard. The former Ole Miss commit scored a team-best 21 points on 46% shooting, along with four rebounds, and seven assists in the two teams’ first meeting in Oxford. Since then, the freshman has still been getting his buckets, averaging 17 ppg in the Bulldogs’ last three games. However, he has NOT been scoring effectively. Hubbard has only been shooting 32% from the field in his last five games. This is good for being in the 11th percentile among all players in the NCAA. This has been due to his poor shooting inside the arc where he only averages 33% on two-pointers, good for being in the 8th percentile. Compare these numbers to his full season stats of 38% and 44%, respectively. 

Despite Hubbard’s shooting woes in his last five games, guard Shakeel Moore has been a model of consistent shooting since the Bulldogs’ loss in Oxford. Moore has been shooting over 50% from the field and over 45% from three-point range. This puts him in the 95th and 97th percentiles, respectively. Moore has been an effective shooter all season long; however, his stats have dramatically increased in recent weeks. He even has been averaging 12 ppg in his last five games compared to his typical 8 ppg he has averaged all season. 

In addition to Shakeel Moore’s positive play recently, Tolu Smith has still been his dominant self. The Rebels were able to hold star forward Tolu Smith to only 9 points on 40% shooting in their first contest. Since then, Smith has dropped 23 points against Bama and 19 points against Georgia. Against Georgia he also averaged 80% from the field. Smith will definitely be a force to be reckoned with, and he will definitely want to make up for his poor performance against the Rebels in their first meeting in front of the Starkville faithful. 

Ole Miss will have its hands full with the Bulldogs tonight. This is an excellent opportunity to steal a Quad 1 win on the road and will help the Rebels make their case to be included in March Madness this year. As mentioned, the final six games of the season will be the most important basketball Beard’s team has played. In the second part of this article, we are going to dive into Ole Miss’ NCAA Tournament resume and talk about what the Rebels need to do in order to play in March.

Ole Miss’ Tournament Chances

Ole Miss has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2019 when the Rebels were an 8-seed and played Oklahoma. As it currently stands, the Rebels are the LAST TEAM IN the NCAA Tournament according to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. The Rebels currently have the making of a bubble team. They are projected as an 11 seed with the other Last-Four-In teams: Butler, Gonzaga, and Seton Hall. Ole Miss does have a relatively good resume as they went through the non-conference schedule unscathed and are .500 in SEC play. The Rebs rank 65th in the NET Rankings, and contain winning records in Quad 2, 3, and 4 games. Here is a full breakdown of their quad wins/losses:

Q1: 3-5

Q2: 2-1

Q3: 7-0

Q4: 7-0

The Rebs have key Quad 1 victories over UCF, Florida, and Texas A&M. They also have Q2 and Q3 victories over NC State, Mississippi St, Memphis, California, and Arkansas. In addition to these wins, the Rebels have many more Q1 and Q2 opportunities down the stretch. Here is the remaining schedule for the Rebs (Editor’s Note: Quads subject to change):

@ Mississippi St (Q1)

Vs. No. 20 South Carolina (Q2)

Vs. No. 13 Alabama (Q1)

@ Missouri (Q3)

@ Georgia (Q2)

Vs. Texas A&M (Q2)

The Rebels are 6-6 in SEC play, and in order for Ole Miss to have zero doubt about themselves being included on Selection Sunday, Chris Beard’s squad needs to get to 10 wins in conference play. The Rebs have at minimum TWO MUST-WIN games — against Missouri and Texas A&M. These are very winnable games for Ole Miss, and if the Rebels lose either of these games, their tournament chances will take a big dip. 

I think Ole Miss LIKELY WINS the games against Georgia and South Carolina. I know winning on the road in the SEC is tough; however, Georgia is one of the SEC’s bottom teams. This will be a game an NCAA Tournament team typically wins. In regards to South Carolina, I understand the Rebs lost to the gamecocks in Columbia; however, Ole Miss played extremely well for a majority of the second half and only lost the game by one point. The Rebels match up very well against the Gamecocks, and they have also played especially well in their own building. I know this is only a Q2 game, but another ranked win for the Rebels would help their resume immensely. 

Ole Miss has two remaining Q1 opportunities this season. The Mississippi State and Alabama games will be huge resume boosters if the Rebels are able to win one of the two contests. A loss in either will not hurt the Rebs, but another Q1 win could potentially differentiate the Rebels from the other bubble teams. Tonight’s game against State is especially important because the game is on the road. This is the type of win the committee especially loves. In regards to Bama, Ole Miss will welcome the top team in the SEC into the SJB Pavilion. There is no doubt in my mind that the building will be rockin,’ and who knows? Anything is possible in college hoops, and the Rebels can pull off the upset. If Coach Beard’s team does lose one of their “likely” games to South Carolina or Georgia, it will be necessary for Ole Miss to steal one of these Quad 1 victories.

As mentioned, if the Rebels can go 4-2 in conference play  in their remaining six regular-season games and win a game or two in the SEC Tournament, Ole Miss will be in prime position to play in March. Stay tuned for everything related to Ole Miss Basketball in the coming weeks as The Rebel Walk will have all the info you need on the Rebel’s run to the NCAA Tournament. 

Game Info

Make sure to catch the Basketball Egg Bowl as the Ole Miss Rebels travel to Starkville to take on the Mississippi St. Bulldogs tonight at 8 pm CST. The game will air on ESPN2.