A Look at Tonight’s Big Matchup in Oxford as Ole Miss Men’s Basketball Hosts Auburn

OXFORD, Miss. — In front of another sold-out crowd tonight at the SJB Pavilion, the Ole Miss Rebels (18-3, 5-3 SEC) take on the Auburn Tigers (17-4, 6-2 SEC). This is the second time these teams are meeting on the hardwood this year. The Tigers defeated the Rebs 82-59 just two Saturdays ago on January 20th. However, a lot has changed since that first meeting. The Rebels have amassed three straight victories with two of those wins coming at home. 

Auburn, however, owns a losing 1-2 record since January 20th. The Tigers have lost road games to Alabama and Mississippi State. They won their most recent game against the Vanderbilt Commodores in Auburn on Wednesday night. The Tigers have not been playing their best basketball as of late. In the first matchup with the Tigers this season, the Rebels faced an Auburn team who entered the contest with a 10-game win streak; now they are a team who is struggling to win games on the road.

Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard’s team is undefeated at home this year and is looking to continue that streak on Saturday Night against a struggling Tiger team. Because the Rebels have already played Auburn this year, go check out our earlier edition of “Scouting the Opposition” Auburn Edition. In today’s article, we are going to do a quick deep dive into why the Tigers have been slumping as of late and where Ole Miss can exploit Auburn to earn another home victory.

What has Auburn Been Up To?

Auburn enters into Oxford 1-2 in its last three contests. The Tigers lost to Alabama in Tuscaloosa (79-75), lost in Starkville to Mississippi St (64-58), and beat Vanderbilt (81-54) at home. Auburn has been a top-tier defensive team all season, and the last three games have been no different. However, it has been on the opposite end where the Tigers have struggled in their last two losses. There are three main reasons why the Tigers have had issues on the offensive end:

Three-Point Shooting

Auburn has struggled shooting from the field recently. In the two losses, the Tigers shot 33% and 41% respectively. These are not great numbers from the formerly No. 1 team in offensive rating in the SEC. What’s even more troubling for them is their 3-point shooting percentages. The Tigers shot 25% and 20% from behind the arc in both losses. In the game against Ole Miss, the Tigers shot an efficient 45% from behind the arc.

A key contributor to Auburn’s shooting woes is starting point guard, Aden Holloway. Holloway has been in a shooting slump as of late and was actually replaced in the starting lineup by guard Tre Donaldson. Holloway, in his last five games, is shooting 22% from the field. This puts him in the 2nd percentile among all players in the country. He is also shooting 18% from 3, good for an 8th percentile. What’s even more alarming about his 3-point percentage is that he is taking five 3s per game. (All these are in the last 5 games.)

Holloway is a freshman and former McDonald’s All-American so he will eventually find his form; however, for the time being, head coach Bruce Pearl has decided to give his more veteran guard, Donaldson, the starting point guard role.

Donaldson has played well since he entered the starting lineup against Mississippi St. He has been shooting an efficient 44% from behind the arc and has been bringing a presence defensively. He is currently above average on forcing steals in the past five games, and is one of the reasons why the Tigers are still 4th in the country in defensive net rating (94.5).

Holloway is not the only reason why the Tigers are shooting a lower percentage from behind the arc. Auburn has not been attacking with the basketball in transition as they have in the past. The Tigers used to be one of the top teams in scoring on fast breaks as well as in the paint. In the last five games, however, Auburn now ranks in the middle of the road in these stats. Auburn is not driving to the basket and trying to draw fouls; rather they are settling for 3s that are just not falling for them. They currently rank 11th in the SEC in free throw attempt rate in their last 5 games. It’s hard enough to win on the road in the SEC; it’s even harder to win on the road in the SEC when their primary offense is shooting the three.

Offensive Rebounding

We know how good of a defensive team Auburn is; however, Auburn has been struggling to keep opposing teams off the offensive boards. In their last five games, the Tigers rank dead last in the SEC in giving up offensive rebounds and 13th in the conference in giving up second-chance points. In both of their losses, the Tigers gave up 14 and 16 offensive boards in those games. These are not ideal numbers especially coming on the road. In the game against Ole Miss, Auburn did give up 16 offensive board to the Rebels. This is something Chris Beard’s team will try to exploit as they draw up their game plan for Saturday.

Turnovers

It is hard to win basketball games when you turn the ball over. For the entirety of the season, Auburn has ranked in the top three in turnover percentage and in the top five of total turnovers. In the last five games, though, Auburn has really struggled with turning the ball over. They now rank 11th and 9th in the turnover categories. Especially with loud environments around the SEC, I see this as a continuing trend as they head into a sold-out crowd in Oxford on Saturday night.

What Ole Miss needs to Do

Now with all of this being said, Auburn is still one of the best teams in the entire country. Star player Johni Broome looks like he has not missed a beat by scoring 16, 14, and 25 since the Ole Miss game. Jaylin Williams is still playing great basketball, even though he has not put up All-SEC numbers like he did during the 11-game win streak. The Tigers bench unit is still one of the best in the entire country, and this is still going to be a difficult game for the Rebels even at home. However, there are a few things the Rebels can do to continue their home win streak:

Force Auburn to Shoot – Auburn likes to take a lot of 3s, especially when they play on the road. This is a dangerous team when they can drive and shoot. Ole Miss needs to close down the driving lanes and force a struggling Auburn team to shoot the ball behind the line, something the Tigers have not done well on the road. All three of Auburn’s true road losses have come at the hand of poor 3-point shooting. Ole Miss needs to continue that trend

Get the Auburn Bigs into Foul Trouble – this is something Mississippi St and Alabama did well against the Tigers. They were able to get Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell into early foul trouble. If the Rebels are able to do this, they take out the Tigers’ best player in Broome and their interior force in Cardwell. Make the Tigers bench players play big minutes by getting the opposition into early foul trouble.

Keep the Bench Rolling – Ole Miss’ bench has played extremely well as of late. They have received contributions from TJ Caldwell, who had a career high against Mississippi State, Brandon Murray, and Rashaud Marshall. Auburn has the best bench scoring team in the SEC. Ole Miss can combat this with the way their bench has been performing as of late.

Leverage the Crowd – The SJB Pavilion will be absolutely rockin’ come tonight. The place is sold out, and Club Red will be out in full force. Ole Miss is undefeated at home. Auburn struggles on the road. Use the crowd to your advantage and continue to make The Pavilion one of the toughest environments to play in the SEC.

Game Info

Ole Miss hosts the Auburn Tigers on Saturday Night at 5pm CST. Make sure to catch the game on the SEC Network.