Four keys to an Ole Miss win over Georgia

ATHENS — No. 9 Ole Miss travels to Athens to take on No. 2 Georgia today. While the Rebels are double-digit (10.0) underdogs on the road between the hedges, there is no doubt head coach Lane Kiffin’s team has the firepower to compete and to win a well-executed game. 

Here are our four keys to an Ole Miss victory. 

Pressure Georgia QB Carson Beck

Getting pressure on Carson Beck is a must. This season, Beck has been pressured on just 17% of his dropbacks — and in such instances he has completed a very meager 46% of his passes. When he is not pressured, however, he holds a whopping 76% completion rate. 

Beck is the least-sacked quarterback in the SEC this season but will face an Ole Miss defense that ranks fifth in the country with 31 sacks, a average of 3.44 per game. 

Jared Ivey leads the way for the Rebels with 5.5 sacks, with Cedric Johnson (4.5), Suntarine Perkins (3), Isaac Ukwu (3) and JJ Pegues (3) also bringing the pressure for Ole Miss.  

Given Beck’s completion percentage disparity between when pressured versus not, it will pay big dividends to pressure him early and get the first-year starter off his game.

Win Third Down

Georgia is one of the best third down teams in the country, offensively and defensively. They rank fourth in the nation with a 55.2% conversion percentage on offense—and their defense is holding opponents to a 26.5% conversion on third down, good for third nationally. 

Conversely, Ole Miss ranks 97th in the nation with a 36.3% third-down conversion rate on offense. Defensively, the Rebels are allowing opponents to convert 39.8% of third downs which ranks 78th. 

One key component that will play a huge part in success on third down, as basic as it sounds, is what the Rebels do on first and second downs. If they can move the chains early, the ability to get in third-and-manageable situations will mean the Ole Miss offense can avoid obvious passing situations. If the Rebels can convert on some third downs, they’ll be able to run their tempo offense, which gives them the best chance to win the game. 

For the Ole Miss defense, forcing Georgia into third-and-long situations, allowing pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after Carson Beck, could help the Rebs get off the field. While the key could be to win early downs, what good is winning early downs if Ole Miss can’t extend drives on offense and get off the field on third down.

Rushing Attack

Georgia is holding opponents to an average of 100 rushing yards per game this season, while Ole Miss is averaging 181 rush yards a game. 

Ole Miss sophomore running back Quinshon Judkins can make a huge impact in the game. He has rushed for 793 total yards this season on 169 attempts, good for a 4.7 yard-per-carry average. The Pike Road, Alabama native leads all SEC running backs in missed tackles forced (46) and yards after contact (586). Both of those stats are what makes Judkins such a threat and give him the ability to change a game. Quinshon has elite vision for a running back with the ability to turn a short gain into a much longer one. 

Ulysses Bentley IV is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, while Jaxson Dart is running at a 3.8 yard-per-carry clip, providing a boost on the ground which could put Ole Miss in a very good spot. 

In each of the Rebs’ last three games, they have rushed for three touchdowns. As we all know, running the ball effectively will force a defense to put more players in the box in turn setting up more one-on-one matchup for receivers.

Feed Tre Harris

Dart has thrown a touchdown pass in every game with the exception of Alabama. The Alabama game was also the only game in which wide receiver Tre Harris did not have a reception — and it was also his first game back coming off knee surgery. 

Against Georgia, however, Harris will be coming off a game last week against A&M where he notched a career best in receptions (11) and yards (213). He has tallied 749 yards receiving this season and is averaging 19.7 yards per reception. He is the only FBS receiver with both a four-TD game and a 200-yard receiving game this season

Dart and Harris have become one of the SEC’s premier quarterback-receiver duos. Harris has dazzled in big situations, his ability to body defensive backs and make circus-like catches has truly been amazing to watch. Of course, none of this is possible without Dart who is playing at an elite level this season, especially late in close games. 

Pro Football Focus has Harris graded as the fourth-best power five wideout. A big day from No. 9 will go a long way to helping the Rebs leave Athens with a win.

Game info

Kickoff is set for 6:00 p.m. and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. Hotty Toddy!