Spreads and totals and covers, Oh my! Ole Miss earned the long-awaited “win-win” at Auburn

OXFORD, Miss. — Under head coach Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss is known for receiving the opening kickoff in almost every game. The strategy entails that when the Rebels win the coin toss, they take the ball. And when their opponents win the toss, they are programmed to defer to the second half — which also gives Ole Miss the ball first. It’s been a near given. Out of seven games this season, Ole Miss has only won the toss one time, but yet has started with the first possession six times.

The only time the Rebels didn’t get the ball first this season? Against Hugh Freeze and Auburn. 

The idea is to be the aggressor, get on the scoreboard first and set your opponents back on their heels — advantage, defense.

This strategy isn’t fail proof, even when successful. Your team must be careful not to lose the ball or the momentum just before halftime because the opponent will be getting the football when the second half begins. A late turnover and score before the half, for instance, can be extremely detrimental.

It’s also imperative that your team takes advantage of getting that first possession. When you don’t, it gives your opponent the opportunity to gain the momentum.

Momentum is a priceless commodity. It’s the key element that provides us a winning spirit, the belief from within telling us that competitive success is our destiny on this particular day. You want to keep the momentum from start to finish.

So back to Freeze and the Auburn game. 

In the game last Saturday on the Plains, Freeze decided to turn the tables on Lane Kiffin. He wanted, perhaps NEEDED, to draw first blood. Why? The Rebels entered that game with a 25-4 record when hitting the scoreboard first under Coach Kiffin. They were also No. 2 in the country in 1st-quarter scoring.

Freeze made the logical move. He won the coin toss and took the ball.

Spreads and totals and covers, Oh my!

Let’s take a look at some of the numbers in this series. True, Ole Miss football teams had lost 8 of 9 games at Auburn. Also true, the Rebels had won only 4 times at Jordon-Hare in series history, and only twice this century. The Rebs are very rarely favored there and had won only once when coming in as road favorites over the past 15 seasons.

In fact, the Rebels had COVERED only one point spread against Auburn in their last 10 meetings anywhere, with that one occurring in 2019 in a 20-14 loss when the Rebs were 17-point underdogs. They managed to “push” in 2017 when getting 21 points, dropping that one 44-23 to the War Eagles.

But this time, the 12th-ranked Rebels were coming in as the markedly better team, favored and deservedly so after strong 4th-quarter comebacks against LSU and Arkansas.

However, recent history reminded us that this favored status for the Rebels, while extremely rare on the Plains, wasn’t unprecedented when playing at Auburn. And previous results had suggested it was predictably anything but a “lock.”

• Favored by 6 in 2009, Ole Miss had lost 33-20.
• Favored by 3 in 2013, Ole Miss had lost 30-22.
• Favored by 8.5 in 2015, Ole Miss had won by 8, 27-19, winning the game but failing to cover.

Now, here we were 8 years later and many Rebel fans were a little nervous facing their old coach in a night game at Jordan-Hare. Coach Kiffin spent all week reminding fans of just how hard it is to win there on the road in a night game.

Despite the past history, however, the Rebs WERE favored at kickoff by 6 1/2 points and by damn, Ole Miss would win it by seven, 28-21, covering the Vegas spread (and those in the Mississippi sports books) by the thinnest of margins.

For those who dabble in such heart-pounding and sometimes gut-wrenching pursuits, it was a double win that’s as rare as they come. And while Coach Kiffin doesn’t give a hoot about point spreads, it was actually his first cover in 4 games against Auburn during his Ole Miss tenure.

And for him personally, what could be better and come at a better time and place than burning Auburn at Auburn after all of last year’s unmitigated craziness about Kiffin potentially leaving the Rebels for the Tigers? Topping it off, the victory marked the first back-to-back wins for Ole Miss against Auburn since 1951 and 1952, some 71 years ago. That’s good stuff. That’s historic.

Back-to-back covers are likely more numerous, but still presumably few and far-between. Case in point; the Rebs didn’t get the cover last year (-14.5) although they did get the W by a solid 14-point margin. The other Ole Miss win at Jordan-Hare this century occurred in 2003 when the No. 20 Rebels, quarterbacked by Eli Manning, took down “Pine Box” Tommy Tuberville’s Tigers, 24-20.

And despite Freeze’s win of the coin toss, the Rebels did indeed score first. Then after a 14-14 first half, the Ole Miss defense played lights-out throughout the 3rd quarter, forcing punts on all three Auburn possessions without surrendering a single first down.

The Rebels would be forced to punt on their first three possessions of the third also, but after Jordan Watkins entered the game to fair-catch a third Auburn punt — broken hand and all at the Ole Miss 10 — the seemingly dead-in-the-water Rebels suddenly caught fire. Burn, baby, burn.

Fourth-quarter Kings

With 2:32 to play in the third, the Rebs went into 4th-quarter mode. Ole Miss leads the country in FBS vs. FBS 4th-quarter scoring.

Kiffin’s Rebels covered 90 yards and scored the go-ahead touchdown as time expired in the third quarter, taking the lead, 21-14. Fifty-three of those yards came on successive pass plays from Jaxson Dart to Tre Harris.

After matching Auburn “punt for punt” in the 3rd quarter after losing the ball on downs to begin the 2nd half, the Rebels caught fire with back-to-back big throws and catches from Jaxson Dart to Tre Harris. The plays cover 29 and 24 yards in the 90-yard go-ahead touchdown drive. pic.twitter.com/KnJITtX4iP

— The Rebel Walk (@TheRebelWalk) October 22, 2023

And once again, this Ole Miss game would come down to how the Rebels responded in the 4th quarter. The fourth quarter is the most talked about quarter in football. It’s the quarter when the weak fade and the strong persevere. It’s clutch time. This game would prove no different.

The Rebels would enter this final period with the lead for the second time in SEC play this season. In the other against Arkansas, however, they temporarily lost their lead but responded with two outstanding drives and great defensive stops to seal the victory.

This 4th quarter featured an initial defensive 3-and-out that was followed by an impressive 68-yard touchdown drive that, for all intents and purposes, put this game away. In it, Dart scrambled for 18 yards and once again found Harris, this time for 36 yards.

Here’s that HUGE scramble by Jaxson Dart for 18 yards on 2nd & 15 on the Rebs’ fourth quarter touchdown drive! pic.twitter.com/FeEyyY3sFl

— The Rebel Walk (@TheRebelWalk) October 22, 2023

Scoring the eventual game-winner was none other than Alabama native Quinshon Judkins. Q is now 2-0 against the Tigers, amassing 263 yards rushing on 46 carries (5.7 avg) with three touchdowns on the ground and a 7-yard TD reception tacked on from last year. His score here made it 28-14 and implanted a certain sense of resignation into Auburn backers with 8 minutes left to play.

We see you, ⁦@TevaJudkins⁩! ♥️💙 pic.twitter.com/6k5WRso89m

— The Rebel Walk (@TheRebelWalk) October 22, 2023

A late touchdown by Auburn made it a bit more respectable for the Tigers, while Ole Miss backers were hoping Freeze wouldn’t choose to go for a two-point conversion, just for old time’s sake.

The Rebels continue to get the most out of their passing game. Ole Miss is currently 4th in the country in yards per completion (15.7) and 5th in yards per attempt (9.9).

By any measure, Saturday’s hard-fought victory was a history-maker, a road win which Ole Miss didn’t chalk up even in its winningest regular season ever — that of 2021.

This team has its sights set even higher as the games, and hopefully point spreads, continue to grow bigger. Embrace it, Rebs. This one goes down as a monumental win. Proving the naysayers wrong will always rank as one of life’s greatest joys!

Hotty Toddy!