QB Film Room | Analyzing Ole Miss’ Expectations

Editor’s Note: Welcome to the QB1 Film Room where David Walker, former four-year starting NCAA quarterback and two-year captain, takes a look at the Rebels’ most recent offensive performance. David still holds the record for the NCAA’s youngest starting quarterback — as he played his entire freshman year as a 17-year-old — and was the first quarterback awarded Freshman of the Year in college football. 

I played for two Hall of Fame coaches in high school and college. Shannon Suarez, my Sulphur High School coach, told us, “You’re either getting better or you’re getting worse; you’re never staying the same.”

This speaks to expectations. Expectations are what we onlookers spend an entire week analyzing between college football games. Which team is improving and which team is digressing? This goes for the coaching, the starting quarterbacks, the defenses, the running games, even the home crowd. Are they getting better or are they getting worse?

For the second year in a row, the Rebels were facing a blemished Alabama team. This hadn’t happened in back-to-back seasons since 2006 and 2007. The previous eleven years before 2022, the Tide had come into the Ole Miss game undefeated. Expectations were higher the past two games against the Tide simply because the reality was that Alabama was indeed beatable.

In fact, Alabama had already lost twice last year before playing Ole Miss in Oxford. But this year was different. Both of Bama’s losses in 2022 had come in Away games, but the Tide’s loss this season had occurred inside Bryant-Denny. This was even more reason for optimism. They CAN be beaten at home!

The expectation going into this year’s game was primarily that Bama was a team in total disarray. For starters, Bryce Young was gone. Jalen Milroe, the newly-named starting quarterback, had only one unimpressive career start under his belt and had even been suspended a game for breaking team rules. The offensive line was porous and the defense highly questionable.

The Texas Longhorns exposed Alabama’s many weaknesses, those of which Ole Miss had reasonably sufficient tools to exploit. Expectations were that Nick Saban was finally on his last legs on the Crimson Tide sideline. This Alabama team appeared as vulnerable as any we’d seen over the past however many years.

Expectations were that an experienced and savvy quarterback like Jaxson Dart, who was literally cleaning up during the first quarter of the season, would rise to the occasion and overshadow the young rookie quarterbacking the Tide.

Expectations were that the suddenly punchless running game would regain its efficiency in the huge setting of Bryant-Denny, and that the senior-laden defense would stop the Tide offense dead in its tracks.

Expectations had the Tide a 7-point favorite, the same spread as they’d had in their loss to Texas. Double-digit underdogs just don’t win at Bryant-Denny unless their quarterback happens to be a Heisman winner, but single-digit underdogs actually have won on occasion.

Expectations even said there’d been a precedent set as the 2015 team led by Swag Kelly marched into Tuscaloosa and took down an UNDEFEATED No. 2 Alabama team that would go on to win the national championship.

The reality now is that the three best teams in the SEC West all have a loss on their record, albeit, of course, Ole Miss has the lone conference loss of the three.

And as expectations go, we must remember that Ole Miss under Kiffin and QB Matt Corral rebounded nicely after an early-season loss to the Tide, going on to its first-ever 10-win regular season just two years ago. The Rebs beat Arkansas, LSU, A&M and Vandy at home in 2021, and beat Tennessee and Mississippi State on the road. The Rebs’ only other loss would come at Auburn.

In Kiffin’s four seasons at Ole Miss, Saturday night will  be be the first LSU game that the Rebs haven’t been favored. In that record-breaking season of 2022, the Rebels were 9-point favorites at home against the Tigers, and won 31-17.

This year, facing the SEC’s top Heisman candidate in LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Rebels are at the time of this writing 2.5-point underdogs.

Kiffin’s Rebels are 1-2 as single-digit home dogs, winning their last one against A&M in 2021 but losing to Florida and Auburn back in 2020. The point spread is simply an estimate of the public’s midline fifty-fifty perception of who wins the game and by how many.

Last year’s game may have been the biggest LSU game in Ole Miss history. The Rebels called on Baton Rouge as undefeated 1-point favorites. We don’t yet know the impact of an Ole Miss win this go-around, but it’s definitely doable and undoubtedly sizable.

The expectations will be high for both sides Saturday as both teams have reason for optimism. In the Rebels’ case, it’s literally a fight for survival in their quest for the SEC West title from here on out.

The question is, “Who’s getting better, and who’s getting worse?”

With that said, let’s watch some Rebel offense from the Alabama game.

The Rebels opened up with a Tight End Delay call to the newest Ole Miss TE, Memphis transfer Caden Prieskorn, for a gain of 21 yards.

This is really a nice play design out of a Tight End Trips formation at the top with Dayton Wade the lone receiver on the right. Dart fakes the handoff to Quinshon as Prieskorn comes for backside protection, and the two playside receivers clear the deep grass for Wade on the crossing route. This flood route also has Judkins open in the flat. The throw is on the money and the ultra-dependable Wade takes it for 40.

This play is reminiscent of the long gainer that Dart had against Georgia Tech when the Rebels went empty set. There are no linebackers as far as the eye can see on this quarterback draw, and center Caleb Warren has absolutely no one to block except maybe an official.

If you’ve ever heard the term, “You’d better buckle your chinstrap,” this is similar to what they’re referring to.

This is a pivotal play. It’s still only a 9-7 game with the Rebels set up at midfield on 2nd-and-6. Dart sends a man deep but is rushed by the Tide’s right defensive tackle. At the moment of release, the DT’s hand flies in his face and the left guard’s foot comes into contact with Dart’s lead foot. Dart has the stride of a pitcher on this throw, which doesn’t help matters. The ball comes out wobbly and a bit short of his target, and is picked off by Bama’s double coverage. This pick turns into 8 points and a 17-7 lead for Alabama.

With the Rebels still within striking distance near their own 20, Dart stands in against the pressure of a fallen offensive guard and delivers a strike to Wade on the out route. The play is good for 19 yards.

Closing in here on the end of the game, here’s a play that we may see more of as the season progresses. It’s Ulysses Bentley on the wheel route out of the backfield for a 25-yard gain on 4th-and-23.