QB1 Film Room: Blackjack, 4th Downs, and Top Plays from the Alabama game
OXFORD, Miss. — If you’ve ever spent time at a Blackjack table, you’ve probably seen plenty of eyes rolling when a player makes a poor decision as to taking a Hit, Standing, Splitting or Doubling Down, particularly when the player is sitting to an individual’s immediate left.
To avoid the head shaking and to give ourselves the best chance of winning at Blackjack, we either memorize or use a “cheat sheet,” the proven guidelines that stand up statistically to any situation we encounter.
Like Coach Kiffin says, regardless of the amount you’re risking; the strategy never changes.
Below is a Blackjack Chart, undoubtedly tested a billion times by computers in expectations of providing players the best call to make in any specific situation. (I never leave home for a casino without it.)
This chart tells you when to Hit, Stand, Split or even Double Down. Using it in every instance does not guarantee a win, but it does guarantee that you’re making the best possible move from a statistical standpoint.
Fourth Downs
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin uses analytics for his fourth down decisions, and we’ve got a sample chart below (This is not specifically what Coach Kiffin uses, but it gives you an idea of what he’s talking about.) As with the Blackjack Chart, the Fourth Down Chart allows no deviation. Its instruction is to be adhered to 100% of the time without exception.
Both the Blackjack Chart and the Fourth Down Chart are analytics in these games of chance/skill. With them, you have a window of opportunity.
The sample size is sufficient, they will tell you, to assume better than 50/50 odds for either chart. Thus, the Chart. (If you can find the app or the Rebels’ chart anywhere, you’ll be able to predict before any of your friends whether Lane’s going to go for it or not on 4th down. Won’t that be fun? Assuming he ever punts again.)
Against Alabama, the Rebels went for it on fourth down on five different occasions, converting two of those. Ole Miss fought hard but eventually lost, 42-21, to a very tough No. 1-ranked opponent.
Rebels’ QB Matt Corral finished 21-of-29 for 213 yards, one touchdown through the air, and no interceptions. He also scored one TD rushing.
With all that said, let’s look at some game film from Alabama.
Video 1 – Braylon Sanders’ incredible catch on the Go route
Here we are on the opening drive and you’ll see Braylon Sanders up top being covered man to man by the Alabama cornerback. It’s time for the Go route and it’s perfectly executed. Sanders’ catch even made the NFL’s “You’ve been Mossed” segment on Sunday morning. You can’t do it any better.
Video 2 – Corral to Sanders on the slant pattern
Here we have a beautifully executed slant pattern off the RPO from Matt Corral to Sanders. It’s already evident the windows are smaller against this Tide defense, but he still slips it in there.
Video 3 – Corral to Drummond on the slant
Here the Rebels are in a wide double Twins set and look to find Dontario Drummond on the slant. Once again an excellent throw and outstanding effort by the receiver after the catch.
Video 4 – Corral on the flare to Jadon Jackson
Here the Rebels put Jackson in motion left to right. The motion takes Alabama out of its Cover 2 defense and they check to a strong safety blitz. It’s picked up very well by the RB and Matt whisks the football wide to Jackson for a big gainer.
Video 5 – Corral untouched into the end zone
It’s not often that a quarterback can run untouched for 10 yards into the end zone against Alabama, but here we have it. Notice the beautiful kick-out block by the right guard Ben Brown and the quick feet of the QB. It’s a well-designed and well-executed play to open the scoring for Ole Miss.
Video 6 – Corral to Dannis Jackson on the Go Route
Here we have another well-executed Go route, perhaps a little back-shoulder throw, and an excellent reception by Jackson.
Video 7 – Corral hits Drummond on a crossing pattern
This play provides an indication of Matt Corral’s nimbleness and coolness in the pocket, and also his lightning-fast release and tremendous arm strength as he hits Drummond on a crossing pattern.
Video 8 – Corral to Chase Rogers for a TD on the out route
Next is an excellent goal line play with Rogers on an out route as Drummond takes the underneath coverage into the flat. Notice the perfect placement and zip on the football for the Rebels’ final score.
David Walker
David Walker was named Louisiana’s High School Player of the Year at just 16 years old and, at 17, became college football’s first quarterback to earn Freshman of the Year honors. He remains the NCAA’s youngest-ever starting quarterback, a distinction that has stood for decades.
Transitioning from a wide-open high school offense to Emory Bellard’s renowned wishbone triple option, Walker excelled as a dual-threat quarterback. He graduated as Texas A&M’s all-time winningest quarterback and served as a two-time team captain, helping to transform a program that had endured 15 losing seasons in the previous 16 years.
After his playing career, Walker coached and taught algebra at six Texas high schools before moving into private business. In 2011, he published his memoir, “I’ll Tell You When You’re Good,” a title inspired by the coaching philosophy of Shannon Suarez, the Sulphur High and Louisiana High School Hall of Fame coach who was a significant influence on Walker’s life and career.
Walker’s compelling storytelling in his autobiography reflects the breadth of his experiences in high school and college football, and it is an undeniable fact that he saw more action than any athlete in the history of the NCAA. Since 2013, he has contributed to The Rebel Walk, sharing his insights and expertise with readers.
