Rebel Walk Roundtable: Week 12 SEC Picks

Coming off of a gritty loss at Texas A&M last Saturday, the Rebels gear up for a huge SEC matchup in Nashville.

The Rebels fell to 5-5 this past Saturday after a tough 38-24 loss at Kyle Field. Ole Miss was in it until the 4th quarter, where they were outscored 17-3–the difference in the game. However, the Rebels have a chance to rebound and get back above .500 this weekend with a win over Vanderbilt. Vandy has been a thorn in the Rebels’ side the last few years, despite Ole Miss winning four of the last five matchups.

Vanderbilt is coming off of a barn-burner of a loss at Mizzou. Vandy had a shot at the end zone as time expired, but their Hail Mary attempt failed. The Commodores fell 33-28, despite excellent days from QB Kyle Shurmur and RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn. This week, though, the teams face off with Vanderbilt fighting to keep its bowl dreams alive.

Outside of this game, there are only two other games involving SEC teams Arkansas heads to Starkville to try and salvage Mississippi State’s season, while Missouri heads to Tennessee to try and keep the Vols from bowl eligibility. Other than that, every other SEC team has an out-of-conference matchup that all should be won fairly easily. But then again, this is college football and you never know what will happen…

With that, let’s take a look around the SEC this week, as The Rebel Walk team makes our picks for Week 12!

Here are our records after last week’s picks!

Evie Van Pelt: 19-6

Land Teller: 19-6

Jake Evans: 19-6

Hays Dubberly: 18-7

Week 11 SEC Schedule

11 A.M. The Citdael (4-5) vs #1 Alabama (10-0)

11 A.M. Middle Tennessee (7-3) vs #20 Kentucky (7-3)

11 A.M. Idaho (4-6) vs #15 Florida (7-3)

11 A.M. Arkansas (2-8, 0-6 SEC) vs #25 Mississippi State (6-4, 2-3 SEC)

2:30 P.M. Missouri (6-4, 2-4 SEC) vs Tennessee (5-5, 2-4 SEC)

3:00 P.M. UMass (4-7) vs #5 Georgia (9-1)

3:00 P.M. Liberty (4-5) vs Auburn (6-4)

6:00 P.M. UAB (9-1) vs Texas A&M (6-4)

6:30 P.M. Rice (1-10) vs #10 LSU (8-2)

6:30 P.M. Chattanooga (6-4) vs South Carolina (5-4)

6:30 P.M. Ole Miss (5-5, 1-5 SEC) vs Vanderbilt (4-6, 1-5 SEC)

Here are our picks for each of this weekend’s upcoming SEC games. Give us your feedback on Twitter (@TheRebelWalk) and Facebook, and let’s talk SEC football! Hotty Toddy!

11 A.M. The Citadel (4-5) vs #1 Alabama (10-0)

Spread: BAMA -51

O/U:

Jake: That poor Citadel. That’s all I’ve got to say.

Evie: Bama could literally score 75.

Land: Lordy do I feel bad for the Citadel… I don’t expect Tua to play because of his banged up leg, but still it’s going to be a rough one for the Bulldogs.

Hays: Bama rolls again. Who will be shocked?

11 A.M. Middle Tennessee (7-3) vs #17 Kentucky (7-3)

Spread: UK -14

O/U: 44.5

Jake: Kentucky struggled big time last week against Tennessee, and it’s easy to see why. The Wildcats offense is as one-dimensional as any in the SEC. Benny Snell is the heart of that team, and when he struggles (like he did last week), UK is doomed. This week though, they get a chance to rebound with MTSU. MTSU was dominated by Vanderbilt and Georgia this season, but is better than most would expect. MTSU’s QB Brent Stockstill is the school leader in passing yards and TDs and is having an excellent year. I see UK winning this game, but I expect the Blue Raiders to hang around and keep it very interesting.

Evie: In two games against SEC opponents this season, MTSU has been outscored 84-14. Including this game, Kentucky has two regular-season games remaining, neither against SEC foes, and if they win them both, the Wildcats have the opportunity to finish with the most wins for a Kentucky team since 1977. They get one of the victories against MTSU Saturday.

Land: This one won’t be a blowout. MTSU isn’t a bad team, but neither is Kentucky. The Wildcats will get the win, but expect the Blue Raiders to put up a fight.

Hays: I’ve been a Kentucky doubter all year, and I will keep doubting until they prove otherwise. The last five games have been ugly, and this one will be too. MTSU will inch past the Wildcats in a low scoring game.

11 A.M. Idaho (4-6) vs #13 Florida (7-3)

Spread: FLA -40

O/U:

Jake: Florida barely snuck by South Carolina last week at home, and after two losses in a row before that, the Gators need a confidence booster. This game gives them the perfect chance before they square off with a weak Florida State on the road. Feleipe Franks needs to dominate this game and show the world that this Gators team is better than they’ve showed the last few weeks. Gators take this one easily.

Evie: Florida is a 40-point favorite in this game for good reason. Look for the Gators to take a bite out of Idaho in a blowout.

Land: Florida needs to dominate this game and they will. Gators in a blowout

Hays: Florida will beat the Vandals with ease, as expected.

11 A.M. Arkansas (2-8, 0-6 SEC) vs #21 Mississippi State (6-4, 2-4 SEC)

Spread: MISS ST -21.5

O/U: 46.5

Jake: Arkansas is just plain awful in all areas of the game right now, and Nick Fitzgerald, Kylin Hill, and the Bulldog defense should have no trouble exploiting that. Bulldogs win this one by a few possessions.

Evie: State has only scored 16 points and one TD in its four losses this season (Kentucky, Florida, LSU, and Alabama), but that won’t be a problem Saturday as Fitzgerald and Co. should steamroll over the Razorbacks in an easy win.

Land: Chad Morris’ tenure as the Razorbacks HC has been off to a tough start. I imagine that entire program and fanbase is just trying to make it to next season. As much as I want Morris and his Hogs to beat State, I just don’t think the Bulldogs defense will give up much. Cowbells prevail and what a bummer that is.

Hays: This Arkansas team will most likely finish 2-10. I do not think Arkansas has much hope against the Bulldogs in Starkville. Fitzgerald will run for over 150 yards and lead the Bulldogs to a victory.

2:30 P.M. Missouri (6-4, 2-4 SEC) vs Tennessee (5-5, 2-4 SEC)

Spread: MIZZ -6.5

O/U: 55.5

Jake: This is easily the best SEC game this week. Mizzou is scoring 35.5 PPG and has looked very good in all 4 of their losses. This team is better than their record for sure. At the same time, Tennessee seems to have found a groove after a dominant win over UK at home. The Vols have made major improvements as this year has gone along, but I still think Mizzou takes this one in a shootout.

Evie: The Vols have some momentum going, especially after the win over Kentucky. But the Missouri offense is not one-dimensional like the Wildcats’. The Tennessee defense will have its work cut out for it. But keep in mind that the Vols have only given up one TD in their last eight quarters of play. They’re playing at home on Senior Day and playing for bowl eligibility, and I think the Vols upset the Tigers.

Land: UT shocked the SEC world again last week after handling a then #11 ranked Kentucky. Mizzou is bowl-eligible and trying to improve their bid. I think this will be a great game, but I’ve got the Tigers over the Vols because I’m still not convinced about UT.

Hays: Tennessee is coming off a big- time win against Kentucky, and I think they carry that momentum into this weekend. With the game being in Neyland Stadium, I think the Vols have the advantage–even though Drew Lock is elite. Missouri is the better football team, but Tennessee is finishing strong in November.

3:00 P.M. UMass (4-7) vs #5 Georgia (9-1)

Spread: UGA -41.5

O/U:

Jake: UGA will dominate this game for an entire 60 minutes. UMass has no chance. Not much else to say…

Evie: All I want to know is why the spread is so “close” at -41.5?

Land: Yeah, Georgia is going to win this game.

Hays: The Bulldogs are saving everyone for next weekend and the SEC Championship–and they’ll still win. 

3:00 P.M. Liberty (4-5) vs Auburn (6-4)

Spread: AUB -29.5

O/U: 60.5

Jake: Auburn struggled to get anything going last week vs UGA, but I don’t see that being a problem at home vs Liberty. Tigers will win and head into the Iron Bowl with some confidence. Not that it’ll really matter.

Evie: Liberty’s defense is simply not very good, so there’s won’t be any excuse for the Tigers if they don’t score aplenty Saturday. Fortunately for Malzahn and his hot seat, the 90th-ranked Auburn offense should not have too much problem scoring on the 122nd-ranked rush defense of Liberty. That being said, I don’t think the Tigers will pull away until the third quarter, but they will get the win.

Land: I can’t figure Auburn out… some weeks they look great, others they look very mediocre… I expect them to look good this week.

Hays: Auburn will look sloppy because they are preparing for Alabama, but they will end up winning handily.

6:00 P.M. UAB (9-1) vs Texas A&M (6-4)

Spread: TXA&M -16.5

O/U: 47

Jake: UAB is having a heck of a season, and is atop Conference USA in all kinds of stats. This team is pretty solid to be honest, and I just really haven’t been impressed with A&M. I think the Blazers shock the world and beat the Aggies at Kyle Field. I don’t know how they’ll do it, but I just feel this one coming.

Evie: UAB is 9-1 and ranked No. 25 in this week’s Coaches Poll. The Blazers lead the nation in sacks with 38 and will put some pressure on Mond and the Aggie offense. But, ultimately I look for the A&M defense to take advantage of UAB’s freshman QB, Tyler Johnston. The young QB took over two weeks ago for UAB senior A.J. Erdley who suffered a shoulder injury. Johnston’s inexperience will be the difference in this game and the Aggies will pick up their 7th win on the season.

Land: Just think… two years ago, UAB didn’t have a football team and now they are 9-1 and making their game against an SEC team kind of difficult. As much as I would love UAB to knock off A&M, I just think the Aggies will be too much for the Blazers to handle.

Hays: UAB is a really good football team with an elite defense. A&M’s offense can be stagnant at times, but I think Trayevon Williams will have another breakout game and put the game away late for the Aggies.

6:30 P.M. Rice (1-10) vs #7 LSU (8-2)

Spread: LSU -44

O/U: 51

Jake: When the lights come on in Tiger Stadium and Coach O leads Tigers onto the field, LSU isa different animal. Rice is having a tough year, and the Tigers will handle them in Death Valley.

Evie: Yikes….this one could get ugly. Tigers win big.

Land: LSU will get its 9th win of this season this week… I hope Rice is getting paid a lot for this game

Hays: LSU chomps the Owls with one bite.

6:30 P.M. Chattanooga (6-4) vs South Carolina (5-4)

Spread: SCAR -31

O/U:

Jake: Like Missouri, South Carolina is better than th record shows. The Gamecocks have hit their stride as of late and are a much better team than they were at the start of the season. They will get on the Mocs early and often and win this one before heading to Clemson.

Evie: South Carolina’s only game against a non-Power 5 team this season led to a big blowout, as the Gamecocks scored 49 against Coastal Carolina. The Chattanooga defense isn’t bad, only giving up 18.2 points per game in the Southern Conference, but Muschamp’s South Carolina team will roll and cover the spread.

Land: Man I’d love the Mocs to take down the Gamecocks, but in case you didn’t know, SEC speed and talent is better than FCS… like a lot better…  Muschamp out-muscles the Mocs… say that five times fast. 

Hays: Chattanooga will not beat the Gamecocks. Although I do not know much about Chattanooga, I know they are an FCS team facing an SEC team. Carolina becomes bowl-eligible with a convincing team.

6:30 P.M. Ole Miss (5-5, 1-5 SEC) vs Vanderbilt (4-6, 1-5 SEC)

Spread: VAN -3

O/U: 67

Jake: Vanderbilt is like that annoying little brother that just won’t leave you alone. The Commodores have been a thorn in the Rebels’ side for years now, and I suspect it’ll be the same this year. No matter how good or bad they are, Vandy seems to somehow summon the best game of the season against Ole Miss. Ole Miss’ offense is good. Vandy’s defense is good. Ole Miss’ defense is not so strong. Vandy’s offense is good. This one should be a nail-biter, but I see the Rebels just outscoring the Commodores when it’s all said and done.

Evie: The Commodores are favored at home by 3 against Ole Miss. Call me crazy, but I don’t think this game will be as close as most folks do–and I think it ends in the Rebels’ favor. Ole Miss players want to send their seniors out the right way–and with two games left this season, that starts with a win in Nashville. I look for A.J. Brown and DaMarkus Lodge to go off today, with each having a 100+yard game in a big win for the Rebels.

Land: Picture this… 45 seconds left in the game… Ole Miss has the ball at their own 48 yard line… Vandy leads 28-24… Ta’amu drops back and hits a wide open Dawson Knox in the middle of the field for a 52 yard touchdown… Knox gets his first career TD in his hometown of Nashville to stun the Commodores after missing the first half for an iffy targeting call… how’s that for poetic justice? #FreeDawsonKnox

Hays: People keep doubting the Rebels, but this team will not quit. If Dawson Knox catches his first career touchdown, the Rebels will win. I think he catches his first one in his hometown to give the Rebs a victory by 14 points.

Our Score Predictions

	Citadel vs. #1 Bama	MTSU vs. #17 KY	Idaho vs. #13 FLA	REBS vs. Vandy	Ark. vs. #25 MSU	UMASS vs. #5 UGA	Liberty vs. Auburn	UAB vs. A&M	Rice vs. #7 LSU	UT-C vs. S. Car.	Mizz. vs. VOLS
Jake	BAMA 51-3	UK 24-20	FLA 45-7	REBS 35-31	MSU 35-10	UGA 45-0	AUB 40-14	UAB 31-28	LSU 42-7	SCAR 30-10	MIZZ 38-24
Evie	BAMA 59-7	UK 27-14	FLA 38-10	REBS 41-28	MSU 38-10	UGA 57-10	AUB 47-14	A&M 31-14	LSU 49-0	SCAR 42-7	VOLS 28-24
Land	BAMA 56-10	UK 27-13	FLA 42-10	REBS 31-28	MSU 31-17	UGA 48-10	AUB 38-7	A&M 35-24	LSU 45-3	SCAR 33-10	MIZZ 27-21
Hays	BAMA 59-7	MTSU 28-27	FLA 38-7	REBS 38-24	MSU 38-14	UGA 42-7	AUB 35-14	A&M 31-20	LSU 45-0	SCAR 35-7	VOLS 28-21

There you have it for The Rebel Walk Roundtable’s Week 12 SEC Picks!

Let us know what you think will happen on Saturday, and start the conversation with us on Twitter (@TheRebelWalk) and Facebook!

Hotty Toddy! Beat Vanderbilt!